Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

Event-Driven

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>IVs guided lower as Inflation data furthers expectations of easier monetary policy. Weekly IVs lower by -3.3 vols, Monthly IVs lower by -1.6 vols &amp; Quarterly IVs remained unaffected.</li>
<li>IV mark-down seems overdone given the heavy upcoming event-risk calendar. Weekly contracts capture the 18.12.2024 FOMC meeting. </li>
<li>Strategic Implications: (1) Consider Long Gamma positioning given upcoming event risk &amp; IV markdown (2) Retain Short Vega allocations while Monthly IVs still above 10.5%.</li>
</ul>


IVs guided lower as Inflation data furthers expectations of easier monetary policy. Weekly IVs lower by -3.3 vols, Monthly IVs lower by -1.6 vols &amp; Quarterly IVs remained unaffected.
IV mark-down seems overdone given the heavy upcoming event-risk calendar. Weekly contracts capture the 18.12.2024 FOMC meeting. 
Strategic Implications: (1) Consider Long Gamma positioning given upcoming event risk &amp; IV markdown (2) Retain Short Vega allocations while Monthly IVs still above 10.5%.


EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Markdown in Short-Dated IVs Overdone Given Upcoming FOMC Event Risk

<ul>
<li>Short-Date IVs reprice higher as active contract rolls over to 12.12.2024 expiry. Elevated risk-premia justified as contracts capture RBI rate decision &amp; U.S. NFP event risks.</li>
<li>Re-Pricing of front-end IVs has kicked Vol term-structure into Backwardation. Monthly &amp; Quarterly IVs remain unchanged. Current Vol curve shape is at odds with improving sentiment in underlying Index.</li>
<li>Strategic Implications: (1) Avoid Short Gamma exposure. (2) Continue allocation to Short Vega + Short Smile structures. (3) Look for Nifty50 trading range to stabilize as trigger for Skew harvesting.   </li>
</ul>


Short-Date IVs reprice higher as active contract rolls over to 12.12.2024 expiry. Elevated risk-premia justified as contracts capture RBI rate decision &amp; U.S. NFP event risks.
Re-Pricing of front-end IVs has kicked Vol term-structure into Backwardation. Monthly &amp; Quarterly IVs remain unchanged. Current Vol curve shape is at odds with improving sentiment in underlying Index.
Strategic Implications: (1) Avoid Short Gamma exposure. (2) Continue allocation to Short Vega + Short Smile structures. (3) Look for Nifty50 trading range to stabilize as trigger for Skew harvesting.   


EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Vol Term-Structure Inverts as Front-End IVs Jump to 15.0%

<ul>
<li>IV PercentRank metrics indicate middle-of-the-range Risk Premia. "High &amp; Down" vol-state persists for the Vol Regime-Switching model.   </li>
<li>Front-End IVs battered  as Weekly options expire prior to Friday's tier-1 event risks. IVs marked down -3.6 vols. </li>
<li>IV Term-Structure shifts drastically - from Backwardation to Kinked-Shape. Year-end calendar effects causing Vol-surface distortions.</li>
</ul>


IV PercentRank metrics indicate middle-of-the-range Risk Premia. "High &amp; Down" vol-state persists for the Vol Regime-Switching model.   
Front-End IVs battered  as Weekly options expire prior to Friday's tier-1 event risks. IVs marked down -3.6 vols. 
IV Term-Structure shifts drastically - from Backwardation to Kinked-Shape. Year-end calendar effects causing Vol-surface distortions.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Front-End IVs Battered as Wkly. Expiry Date Misses Out on Tier-1 Event Risks.

<ul>
<li>IVs trade higher in spite of a late-week recovery in equities. Negative correlation between Index &amp; option premiums reasserted as multiple holidays fall off the calendar.    </li>
<li>Vol-Regime Switching Model firmly lodged in "High &amp; Down" state. Allocation to Iron Condors/ Iron Butterflies recommended.   </li>
<li>Vol surface characteristics also reflecting increased risk premia - Skew extends away from overly compressed levels. Vol term structure swings from Contango to Backwardation.</li>
</ul>


IVs trade higher in spite of a late-week recovery in equities. Negative correlation between Index &amp; option premiums reasserted as multiple holidays fall off the calendar.    
Vol-Regime Switching Model firmly lodged in "High &amp; Down" state. Allocation to Iron Condors/ Iron Butterflies recommended.   
Vol surface characteristics also reflecting increased risk premia - Skew extends away from overly compressed levels. Vol term structure swings from Contango to Backwardation.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Finally Respond to Mkt. Forces as Holidays Drop off the Calendar

<ul>
<li>IVs steady in spite of significant drop in Indices. Nifty50 Monthly IVs flat at 12.7% &amp; BankNifty Monthly IVs mildly higher to 14.9%. </li>
<li>Paring back of Skew-harvesting recommended. RR levels look overly compressed against backdrop of index weakness</li>
<li>Multiple market holidays pushed short-dated IVs lower. Vol term structure moved deeper into Contango,  Weekly vs. Monthly vol-differential now at -1.9 vols.</li>
</ul>


IVs steady in spite of significant drop in Indices. Nifty50 Monthly IVs flat at 12.7% &amp; BankNifty Monthly IVs mildly higher to 14.9%. 
Paring back of Skew-harvesting recommended. RR levels look overly compressed against backdrop of index weakness
Multiple market holidays pushed short-dated IVs lower. Vol term structure moved deeper into Contango,  Weekly vs. Monthly vol-differential now at -1.9 vols.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Subdued in Spite of Weakening Equities. Skew Looks Overly Compressed.

AceGama Advisors
Proprietary Trading Desk

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Markdown in Short-Dated IVs Overdone Given Upcoming FOMC Event Risk

Nifty50 weakness & FOMC event-risk has triggered a move higher in IVs. Weekly IVs jumped from 11.0% to 15.0%.& Monthly IVs jumped from 12.2% to...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Vol Term-Structure Inverts as Front-End IVs Jump to 15.0%

Previously noted that the inverted Vol term-structure was out of phase with a rallying NIFTY50. The term-structure has now flattened & moved into...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Front-End IVs Battered as Wkly. Expiry Date Misses Out on Tier-1 Event Risks.

IV metrics show moderate risk premia. Front-end IVs dropping before tier-1 event risks. Term structure shifts from backwardation to kinked-shape...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Finally Respond to Mkt. Forces as Holidays Drop off the Calendar

IVs rise despite late-week equities rebound. Negative correlation between Index & option premiums confirmed as holidays end. Skew and Vol term...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Subdued in Spite of Weakening Equities. Skew Looks Overly Compressed.

Despite a drop in indices IVs remain steady. Skew overly compressed. Short-dated IVs lowered due to market holidays, leading to a deeper Contango...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Markdown in Short-Dated IVs Overdone Given Upcoming FOMC Event Risk

Nifty50 weakness & FOMC event-risk has triggered a move higher in IVs. Weekly IVs jumped from 11.0% to 15.0%.& Monthly IVs jumped from 12.2% to...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Vol Term-Structure Inverts as Front-End IVs Jump to 15.0%

Previously noted that the inverted Vol term-structure was out of phase with a rallying NIFTY50. The term-structure has now flattened & moved into...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Front-End IVs Battered as Wkly. Expiry Date Misses Out on Tier-1 Event Risks.

​IV metrics show moderate risk premia. Front-end IVs dropping before tier-1 event risks. Term structure shifts from backwardation to kinked-shape...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Finally Respond to Mkt. Forces as Holidays Drop off the Calendar

​IVs rise despite late-week equities rebound. Negative correlation between Index & option premiums confirmed as holidays end. Skew and Vol term...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Subdued in Spite of Weakening Equities. Skew Looks Overly Compressed.

​Despite a drop in indices IVs remain steady. Skew overly compressed. Short-dated IVs lowered due to market holidays, leading to a deeper Contango...

AceGama Advisors

IV metrics show moderate risk premia. Front-end IVs dropping before tier-1 event risks. Term structure shifts from backwardation to kinked-shape...

IVs rise despite late-week equities rebound. Negative correlation between Index & option premiums confirmed as holidays end. Skew and Vol term...

Despite a drop in indices IVs remain steady. Skew overly compressed. Short-dated IVs lowered due to market holidays, leading to a deeper Contango...