Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Here we are checking our thesis on the bond markets we reconfirmed as bullish back in September.</li>
<li>Declining inflation, as indicated by the November US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator, could lead to the 2% inflation target in 2024</li>
<li>A rate cut and a peak of a rate hike cycle plots a scenario where  fixed rate bonds will be the asset class of choice in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Here we are checking our thesis on the bond markets we reconfirmed as bullish back in September.
Declining inflation, as indicated by the November US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator, could lead to the 2% inflation target in 2024
A rate cut and a peak of a rate hike cycle plots a scenario where  fixed rate bonds will be the asset class of choice in 2024.


Bond Market Monitor: Time to Invest in EM Bonds

Credit

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited engages in the research, development, and production of biodiesel products in Thailand.

<ul>
<li>EA’s Q3 results on 14-November was disappointing as expected on the declining EBITDA.</li>
<li>Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap) still indicates the implied international credit rating of “B+” which gives us relative comfort for the credit.</li>
<li>EA’s story rests on the usage of its network to extend debt maturity and sell assets, and not so much on cashflow which may be generated in the near term. </li>
</ul>


EA’s Q3 results on 14-November was disappointing as expected on the declining EBITDA.
Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap) still indicates the implied international credit rating of “B+” which gives us relative comfort for the credit.
EA’s story rests on the usage of its network to extend debt maturity and sell assets, and not so much on cashflow which may be generated in the near term. 


<ul>
<li>Recent events are credit and spread positive in the near-term for EA.</li>
<li>Q2 results are no surprise while we remain concerned on a declining recurring revenues.</li>
<li>We maintain our stance on no recommendation on EA's THB bonds for the lack of liquidity and reliable quotes.</li>
</ul>


Recent events are credit and spread positive in the near-term for EA.
Q2 results are no surprise while we remain concerned on a declining recurring revenues.
We maintain our stance on no recommendation on EA's THB bonds for the lack of liquidity and reliable quotes.


<ul>
<li>This flash note is an update for our readers on the indicative probability of default for Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA).</li>
<li>We plotted EA’s probability of default, using Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap), against its peers, and we believe the chart indicated a high probability of default still.</li>
<li>Given a lack of reliable bond quotes in the THB bond market, we continue to issue our report on EA without a recommendation.</li>
</ul>


This flash note is an update for our readers on the indicative probability of default for Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA).
We plotted EA’s probability of default, using Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap), against its peers, and we believe the chart indicated a high probability of default still.
Given a lack of reliable bond quotes in the THB bond market, we continue to issue our report on EA without a recommendation.


Energy Absolute: Trying to Be a B+ Credit

<ul>
<li>The EA 248A bond meeting on 9-August produced a consent from bondholders to extend the maturity as per the company’s request.</li>
<li>EA’s CFO announced that the company has secured 3-year credit facilities from 9 financial institutions and Asset Plus Securities Fund Management.</li>
<li>Barring any further negative news , we believe the maturity extension and the long-term bank credit facilities could lead TRIS to at least reverse EA’s credit rating outlook.</li>
</ul>


The EA 248A bond meeting on 9-August produced a consent from bondholders to extend the maturity as per the company’s request.
EA’s CFO announced that the company has secured 3-year credit facilities from 9 financial institutions and Asset Plus Securities Fund Management.
Barring any further negative news , we believe the maturity extension and the long-term bank credit facilities could lead TRIS to at least reverse EA’s credit rating outlook.


* Fixed income research professional with 20+ years of experience covering financial institutions, corporates, and sovereigns with a global client network.
* Supervisory experience since 2002
* FINRA's supervisory analyst from 2006-2008
* Responsible officer and an SFC-licensed analyst since 2011
* Regular speaker at fixed income events in Asia
* Ranked Asian 4th Best Fixed Income Analyst (FinanceAsia, Nov’08)
* Ranked Asian 2nd Best Corporate Credit Analyst (FMAP, June’07)

Warut Promboon
Independent Asian Credit Research
• Bondcritic

Bond Market Monitor: Time to Invest in EM Bonds

Here is the time to review what we said last December. We are due to the launch thew revision by the end of the month. Stay tuned!

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: Energy Limited

EA's disappointing Q3 results were expected due to declining EBITDA, but Criat's iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit still gives relative comfort for the...

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: No Tricks and No Treats

Recent events are positive for EA in the short term, but concerns remain about declining recurring revenues, leading to no recommendation on their...

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: Trying to Be a B+ Credit

Update on Energy Absolute 's probability of default shows high risk compared to peers using iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit. No recommendation due to...

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: Band Aid Secured

We believe EA's near-term liquidity crunch is nearly over. Barring further negative news, the maturity extension and the bank credit facilities...

Bondcritic

Bond Market Monitor: Time to Invest in EM Bonds

Here is the time to review what we said last December. We are due to the launch thew revision by the end of the month. Stay tuned!

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: Energy Limited

​EA's disappointing Q3 results were expected due to declining EBITDA, but Criat's iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit still gives relative comfort for the...

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: No Tricks and No Treats

​Recent events are positive for EA in the short term, but concerns remain about declining recurring revenues, leading to no recommendation on their...

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: Trying to Be a B+ Credit

​Update on Energy Absolute 's probability of default shows high risk compared to peers using iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit. No recommendation due to...

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: Band Aid Secured

We believe EA's near-term liquidity crunch is nearly over. Barring further negative news, the maturity extension and the bank credit facilities...

Bondcritic

EA's disappointing Q3 results were expected due to declining EBITDA, but Criat's iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit still gives relative comfort for the...

Recent events are positive for EA in the short term, but concerns remain about declining recurring revenues, leading to no recommendation on their...

Update on Energy Absolute 's probability of default shows high risk compared to peers using iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit. No recommendation due to...