Independent Research, Turtles all the way down

Turtles all the way down

Independent Research

Writing short articles about mis-priced boring stocks around the world.

Equity Bottom-Up

Berry Global Group Inc. manufactures plastic products and containers. The Company produces agricultural film, moisture control products for buildings, closures, disposable cutlery, drop cloths, flexible packaging, overcaps, tapes, tubes, bottles, drink cups, lids, and trash bags. Berry Plastics markets its products worldwide.

<ul><li>First I sold my Berry Global (BERY) shares (mentioned here a few days ago ) and my opinion on the spin-off transaction went from being neutral to slightly positive to neutral to slightly negative.</li><li>Probably should have looked into it deeper, but I got a large backlog of stocks to look at right now.</li><li>So what I will do is I will wait until after the spin-off before entering a position. I will be away anyway when the spin off begins trading, so I will not have the option to sell it right away, which I also don’t like.</li></ul>

First I sold my Berry Global (BERY) shares (mentioned here a few days ago ) and my opinion on the spin-off transaction went from being neutral to slightly positive to neutral to slightly negative.Probably should have looked into it deeper, but I got a large backlog of stocks to look at right now.So what I will do is I will wait until after the spin-off before entering a position. I will be away anyway when the spin off begins trading, so I will not have the option to sell it right away, which I also don’t like.

<ul><li>This is a reactivation of an old idea <strong>Berry Global (BERY) </strong>that I wrote about 2 years ago. It is basically a roll up in the plastic packaging business.</li><li>The first rule of roll up investing is that you want organic growth. Without organic growth it will be hard to get long term returns or an earnings multiple above 10x.</li><li>I wrote this stock up in early 2022 and sold it 6 months later at $61 for a 13% profit just below where it is trading now.</li></ul>

This is a reactivation of an old idea Berry Global (BERY) that I wrote about 2 years ago. It is basically a roll up in the plastic packaging business.The first rule of roll up investing is that you want organic growth. Without organic growth it will be hard to get long term returns or an earnings multiple above 10x.I wrote this stock up in early 2022 and sold it 6 months later at $61 for a 13% profit just below where it is trading now.

Lufax Holding Ltd operates technology-empowered personal financial services platform. The Company connects financial institutions to facilitate lending and wealth management products tailored to individual customer's needs and risk appetites.

<ul>
<li>I am quite sick so I will keep it short.</li>
<li>I am closing Lufax (LU) here and would at least take something off the table for JD holdings (JD) </li>
<li>Honestly Lufax business is too much of a black box, and the forward PE multiple isn’t low enough anymore for my taste.</li>
</ul>


I am quite sick so I will keep it short.
I am closing Lufax (LU) here and would at least take something off the table for JD holdings (JD) 
Honestly Lufax business is too much of a black box, and the forward PE multiple isn’t low enough anymore for my taste.


<ul><li>Lot’s of confusion for me around <strong>Lufax (LU)</strong>.</li><li>I took my dividend in shares being under the impression the scrip price was $2.15 (1 ADR is 2 shares):“Option 2: Elect Stock - You may elect to receive the dividend paid in new ADRs of LUFAX HLDG LTD at rate USD 1.073647 per share held on record date.”</li><li>But apparently it is actually $2.25? Did IBKR make a mistake, will I get my shares at $2.15 or did I misread the above? </li></ul>

Lot’s of confusion for me around Lufax (LU).I took my dividend in shares being under the impression the scrip price was $2.15 (1 ADR is 2 shares):“Option 2: Elect Stock - You may elect to receive the dividend paid in new ADRs of LUFAX HLDG LTD at rate USD 1.073647 per share held on record date.”But apparently it is actually $2.25? Did IBKR make a mistake, will I get my shares at $2.15 or did I misread the above? 

<ul><li>It has come to my attention that Lufax management has recently altered the terms of their convertible debt: Based on the terms and conditions of the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes, as a result of the Special Dividend, the Conversion Price will be adjusted from US$12.</li><li>Based on the terms and conditions of the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes, as a result of the Special Dividend, the Conversion Price will be adjusted from US$12.76 per Share as at the date of this circular to US$2.32 per Share upon settlement of the Special Dividend, and thus, upon full conversion, the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes can be converted into a maximum number of 421,077,586 Shares (the “Conversion Shares”).</li><li>The Company considers that the adjustment formula is in line with market practice for anti-dilution provisions in convertible securities.</li></ul>

It has come to my attention that Lufax management has recently altered the terms of their convertible debt: Based on the terms and conditions of the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes, as a result of the Special Dividend, the Conversion Price will be adjusted from US$12.Based on the terms and conditions of the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes, as a result of the Special Dividend, the Conversion Price will be adjusted from US$12.76 per Share as at the date of this circular to US$2.32 per Share upon settlement of the Special Dividend, and thus, upon full conversion, the Ping An Convertible Promissory Notes can be converted into a maximum number of 421,077,586 Shares (the “Conversion Shares”).The Company considers that the adjustment formula is in line with market practice for anti-dilution provisions in convertible securities.

Turtles all the way down
Independent Research
• Turtles all the way down

Closing 5 ideas

First I sold my Berry Global (BERY) shares (mentioned here a few days ago ) and my opinion on the spin-off transaction went from being neutral to...

Turtles all the way down

Berry Global, Part II

This is a reactivation of an old idea Berry Global (BERY) that I wrote about 2 years ago. It is basically a roll up in the plastic packaging business.

Turtles all the way down

Chinese Animal Spirits

I am quite sick so I will keep it short. I am closing Lufax (LU) here and would at least take something off the table for JD holdings (JD) ....

Turtles all the way down

Trying to Make Sense of Lufax

Analyst estimates are likely too conservative, and earnings might get close to $700-800m already in 2025 or $.8-9/share, which would make LU still...

Turtles all the way down

Closing Lufax

The Company considers that the adjustment formula is in line with market practice for anti-dilution provisions in convertible securities.

Turtles all the way down