Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Corn No. 2 Yellow at par and substitutions at differentials established by the exchange.

<ul>
<li>Strong American harvest driving downward pressure on Wheat, likely to offset reductions in EU and Russia.</li>
<li>Corn saw modest recovery, driven by muted ending stocks, below trade estimate, but the harvest is going to be the third largest ever.</li>
<li>US soybean production remains muted, in line with the Acreage report, and led to moderate recovery in early trading on Friday, but bearish sentiment persists.</li>
</ul>


Strong American harvest driving downward pressure on Wheat, likely to offset reductions in EU and Russia.
Corn saw modest recovery, driven by muted ending stocks, below trade estimate, but the harvest is going to be the third largest ever.
US soybean production remains muted, in line with the Acreage report, and led to moderate recovery in early trading on Friday, but bearish sentiment persists.


Latest WASDE Paints Agri Bearishness; Wheat Harvest Dominates While Corn & Beans Find Thin Support

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.</li>
<li>USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.</li>
</ul>


Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.
Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.
USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.


Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

<ul>
<li>Yale Hirsch's Presidential Election Cycle theory posits that US equities perform best in third year followed by the election year. Equities are weakest in the year following the election.</li>
<li>Over 6 decades, the S&amp;P500 delivered positive returns in thirteen of sixteen election years. On average, the index returned 4.1% during 1H followed by 3.2% in 2H.</li>
<li>Forget this theory, markets are pricing an 88% chance of rates being slashed starting Sep. Citi analysts expect 200bps of cuts over 8 meetings. Euphoric markets will go on steroids.</li>
</ul>


Yale Hirsch's Presidential Election Cycle theory posits that US equities perform best in third year followed by the election year. Equities are weakest in the year following the election.
Over 6 decades, the S&amp;P500 delivered positive returns in thirteen of sixteen election years. On average, the index returned 4.1% during 1H followed by 3.2% in 2H.
Forget this theory, markets are pricing an 88% chance of rates being slashed starting Sep. Citi analysts expect 200bps of cuts over 8 meetings. Euphoric markets will go on steroids.


Will Presidential Election Cycle Theory Fuel Continued US Equities Rally in 2H 2024?

<ul>
<li>Recent acreage report shows benign planting figures and solid ending stocks for Corn sending its prices lower. Wheat also declined on higher stocks, while Soybeans rebounded.</li>
<li>Wheat faces headwinds &amp; tailwinds. Fundamentals are dragged down by favorable weather in exporting countries &amp; imminent US harvest; Strong US demand &amp; weak EU forecast has supported prices.</li>
<li>Soybeans appear well supported from an unlikely ally in Trump. Import Duty tit-for-tat could see China slapping duty on Soy imports.</li>
</ul>


Recent acreage report shows benign planting figures and solid ending stocks for Corn sending its prices lower. Wheat also declined on higher stocks, while Soybeans rebounded.
Wheat faces headwinds &amp; tailwinds. Fundamentals are dragged down by favorable weather in exporting countries &amp; imminent US harvest; Strong US demand &amp; weak EU forecast has supported prices.
Soybeans appear well supported from an unlikely ally in Trump. Import Duty tit-for-tat could see China slapping duty on Soy imports.


[CB 27/2024] Wheat & Bean Up on Improving Demand as Corn Tumbles on Benign Planting & Solid Harvest

<ul>
<li>Hurricane Beryl started out as a category 5 hurricane, made landfall on the Texas Coast early Monday (08/July) &amp; weakened to a Tropical Depression.</li>
<li>Beryl has weakened and likely not significantly impact corn and soybean prices in the long run. Storm led rains will likely have a bearish effect on prices.</li>
<li>Beryl might bring much needed rain to Illinois, Indiana, and parts of Ohio, potentially providing favorable weather for corn and soybean growth in these areas.</li>
</ul>


Hurricane Beryl started out as a category 5 hurricane, made landfall on the Texas Coast early Monday (08/July) &amp; weakened to a Tropical Depression.
Beryl has weakened and likely not significantly impact corn and soybean prices in the long run. Storm led rains will likely have a bearish effect on prices.
Beryl might bring much needed rain to Illinois, Indiana, and parts of Ohio, potentially providing favorable weather for corn and soybean growth in these areas.


Corn & Soybeans Yields Stand to Benefit from Storm Beryl Even as It Leaves Destruction in Its Path

Over twenty years of experience in capital markets covering equities, listed derivatives, physical commodities, OTC commodity derivatives, and digital assets. Straddling sell-side and buy-side with more than a decade of fluency in managing exchange listed products, OTC derivatives, and proficiency in building exchange platforms.

Our investment approach at Mint Finance blends deep fundamental research with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies developed by Mint Finance cuts across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every investment strategy to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across political and monetary economics.