Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>While global economic conditions have been “so far so good”, there are signs of trouble that, while manageable for now, could darken the outlook if they spiral out of control. </li>
<li>On the upside, conditions in major markets such as the US and China are stabilizing, while global capital spending and technology cycles should be favourable for Asia. </li>
<li>While the risks are growing, resilient domestic demand and appropriate macroeconomic management should shield Asian markets from the worst of the downsides. </li>
</ul>


While global economic conditions have been “so far so good”, there are signs of trouble that, while manageable for now, could darken the outlook if they spiral out of control. 
On the upside, conditions in major markets such as the US and China are stabilizing, while global capital spending and technology cycles should be favourable for Asia. 
While the risks are growing, resilient domestic demand and appropriate macroeconomic management should shield Asian markets from the worst of the downsides. 


Regional Economics: In A Stormier World, Can Asia’s Ship Remain Steady?

<ul>
<li>China’s latest consumer data will do little to convince the leadership to significantly step stimulus in the upcoming Third Plenum as support for advanced sectors remains key.</li>
<li>Beijing's refraining from significant stimulus is deemed a feature, rather than a bug. Policymakers do not yet view the trade-offs as unmanageable. </li>
<li>While some incremental step-up in policy support may be on the cards, do not expect Beijing to rock the boat beyond that. </li>
</ul>


China’s latest consumer data will do little to convince the leadership to significantly step stimulus in the upcoming Third Plenum as support for advanced sectors remains key.
Beijing's refraining from significant stimulus is deemed a feature, rather than a bug. Policymakers do not yet view the trade-offs as unmanageable. 
While some incremental step-up in policy support may be on the cards, do not expect Beijing to rock the boat beyond that. 


China Economics: Expect Few Changes in Third Plenum

<ul>
<li>Reading between the lines, the resignations of two senior officials of the New Capital Authority strikes us as a de facto sacking. </li>
<li>While there may be gripes with the pace of delivery in developing Nusantara, the fundamental problem remains that the economics of the new capital are unfavourable. </li>
<li>Incoming president Prabowo should also not be assumed to continue placing the same priority on Nusantara as his predecessor Widodo currently does. </li>
</ul>


Reading between the lines, the resignations of two senior officials of the New Capital Authority strikes us as a de facto sacking. 
While there may be gripes with the pace of delivery in developing Nusantara, the fundamental problem remains that the economics of the new capital are unfavourable. 
Incoming president Prabowo should also not be assumed to continue placing the same priority on Nusantara as his predecessor Widodo currently does. 


Indonesia Economics: New Capital Faces More Than Just Personnel Woes

<ul>
<li>After a period of economic and political turbulence, Malaysia is now re-entering the spotlight, performing admirably in attracting technology-focused investments.</li>
<li>The success in luring semiconductor and data centre investments is not down to pure luck; policymakers have worked hard to ensure that the country friendly to global tech business.</li>
<li>If momentum on business investments and policy reform can be maintained, the country may be on the verge of a virtuous cycle that helps it escape the middle-income trap.</li>
</ul>


After a period of economic and political turbulence, Malaysia is now re-entering the spotlight, performing admirably in attracting technology-focused investments.
The success in luring semiconductor and data centre investments is not down to pure luck; policymakers have worked hard to ensure that the country friendly to global tech business.
If momentum on business investments and policy reform can be maintained, the country may be on the verge of a virtuous cycle that helps it escape the middle-income trap.


Malaysia Economics: Is “Digital Tiger” Malaysia About to Roar Again?

<ul>
<li>The ruling BJP suffered major losses in the recent elections. It fell short of an overall majority and will have to rely on regional partners to form the next government. </li>
<li>Consolidation of the anti-BJP vote under the aegis of the INDIA coalition delivered dividends, but voters also were not enthused by Modi's economic and social campaign rhetoric. </li>
<li>Expect short-term uncertainty as the major blocs attempt to cobble together parliamentary majorities. But more political checks and balances would be good for India. </li>
</ul>


The ruling BJP suffered major losses in the recent elections. It fell short of an overall majority and will have to rely on regional partners to form the next government. 
Consolidation of the anti-BJP vote under the aegis of the INDIA coalition delivered dividends, but voters also were not enthused by Modi's economic and social campaign rhetoric. 
Expect short-term uncertainty as the major blocs attempt to cobble together parliamentary majorities. But more political checks and balances would be good for India. 


India Politics: Setback for Modi Heralds Era of Uncertain Coalition Politics

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.