Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Malaysia’s strong GDP growth in 2Q24 was driven by a broad-based recovery across major economic sectors, with manufacturing making a turnaround after a difficult 2023. </li>
<li>The labour market, domestic demand, and external sector indicators also bode well for the country's growth prospects for the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>Pending the release of the confirmed GDP figures, we expect full-year growth of around 4.8%, up 25bps from our previous view. </li>
</ul>


Malaysia’s strong GDP growth in 2Q24 was driven by a broad-based recovery across major economic sectors, with manufacturing making a turnaround after a difficult 2023. 
The labour market, domestic demand, and external sector indicators also bode well for the country's growth prospects for the remainder of the year. 
Pending the release of the confirmed GDP figures, we expect full-year growth of around 4.8%, up 25bps from our previous view. 


Malaysia Economics: Comeback with Strong 2Q24 GDP Growth

<ul>
<li>An opposition party's bid to vacate the seats of six rebel lawmakers has failed after the parliament speaker ruled that the anti-hopping laws were not infringed on. </li>
<li>This provides some short-term relief for the government of Anwar Ibrahim; the prospect of a 0-6 loss to the opposition would have strained the unity of his coalition partners. </li>
<li>While the breathing space allows the government to continue with certain key reforms, the political cycle will soon mean that Anwar will be focused on winning re-election. </li>
</ul>


An opposition party's bid to vacate the seats of six rebel lawmakers has failed after the parliament speaker ruled that the anti-hopping laws were not infringed on. 
This provides some short-term relief for the government of Anwar Ibrahim; the prospect of a 0-6 loss to the opposition would have strained the unity of his coalition partners. 
While the breathing space allows the government to continue with certain key reforms, the political cycle will soon mean that Anwar will be focused on winning re-election. 


Malaysia Politics: Anwar Government Avoids Tricky By-Elections

<ul>
<li>Even if it is premature to proclaim the death of manufacturing-led growth, the strategy that drove the success of the East Asian miracles may no longer be easily replicated. </li>
<li>The services sector has several advantages such as a large degree of labour absorption and continued momentum in international trade. But there are other limitations. </li>
<li>There is little need to place all of a country’s eggs in a single industry’s basket; the menu of policies that are beneficial to both is not a short one. </li>
</ul>


Even if it is premature to proclaim the death of manufacturing-led growth, the strategy that drove the success of the East Asian miracles may no longer be easily replicated. 
The services sector has several advantages such as a large degree of labour absorption and continued momentum in international trade. But there are other limitations. 
There is little need to place all of a country’s eggs in a single industry’s basket; the menu of policies that are beneficial to both is not a short one. 


Regional Economics: Services or Manufacturing, Where Does the Future of Growth Lie?

<ul>
<li>Indonesia saw inflation return to target thanks to a further softening in food inflation. There are however upside risks from imported inflation due to the rupiah's weakness. </li>
<li>Demand-Side indicators suggest that the strong run of expansionary activity may be reaching its tail end; the latest PMI reading has only been marginally positive. </li>
<li>Jakarta's trade policy erraticism was on full display as ministers contradicted each other on a proposal to slap tariffs on China-origin goods. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia saw inflation return to target thanks to a further softening in food inflation. There are however upside risks from imported inflation due to the rupiah's weakness. 
Demand-Side indicators suggest that the strong run of expansionary activity may be reaching its tail end; the latest PMI reading has only been marginally positive. 
Jakarta's trade policy erraticism was on full display as ministers contradicted each other on a proposal to slap tariffs on China-origin goods. 


Indonesia Economics: Signs of Moderating Growth

<ul>
<li>Even as global manufacturing trade faces the prospect of “slow-balization”, trade in services shows no sign of peaking, providing an opportunity for emerging Asia.</li>
<li>While advanced economies currently dominate world services exports, emerging Asian economies have opportunities to carve out niches in specific sub-segments. </li>
<li>Key to succeeding in this new arena are human capital, including proficiency in the English language, as well as a liberal stance towards foreign and domestic service exporters.</li>
</ul>


Even as global manufacturing trade faces the prospect of “slow-balization”, trade in services shows no sign of peaking, providing an opportunity for emerging Asia.
While advanced economies currently dominate world services exports, emerging Asian economies have opportunities to carve out niches in specific sub-segments. 
Key to succeeding in this new arena are human capital, including proficiency in the English language, as well as a liberal stance towards foreign and domestic service exporters.


Regional Economics: The Rise of “Intangible” Trade in Asia

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.