Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. operates as a software company. The Company develops digital freight and logistics platform.

<ul>
<li>On March 5 Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance posted another great set of results</li>
<li>Strong Q424 top-line growth was matched by firm OpEx control, leading to higher margins</li>
<li>We've upped our FY25 earnings numbers; we rate YMM a BUY with a US$17/ADS target</li>
</ul>


On March 5 Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance posted another great set of results
Strong Q424 top-line growth was matched by firm OpEx control, leading to higher margins
We've upped our FY25 earnings numbers; we rate YMM a BUY with a US$17/ADS target


Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

Equity Capital Markets

Zoetop Business Co., Limited, doing business as SHEIN, operates as a fashion e-commerce platform. The Company focuses on women's wear, men's apparel, children's clothes, accessories, shoes, bags, and other fashion items. SHEIN serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Over the last 25 months, there's been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN</li>
<li>The latest challenges: US tariff chaos &amp; Amazon's launch of its competing platform, <em>Haul </em>
</li>
<li>Tariff changes &amp; growth of <em>Haul</em> could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation</li>
</ul>


Over the last 25 months, there's been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN
The latest challenges: US tariff chaos &amp; Amazon's launch of its competing platform, Haul 

Tariff changes &amp; growth of Haul could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation


It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

EVA Airways Corp. is an air carrier that transports passengers and cargos. The Company operates primarily in Taiwan and serves international route networks in North America, Asia, Europe, and Australasia.

<ul>
<li>January air cargo activity moderated; timing of LNY holiday also made for tough comps</li>
<li>January Int'l air cargo tons at US gateways grew far less than inbound (ocean) TEUs</li>
<li>Data from Asian carriers &amp; US gateways indicates low utilization, softening growth</li>
</ul>


January air cargo activity moderated; timing of LNY holiday also made for tough comps
January Int'l air cargo tons at US gateways grew far less than inbound (ocean) TEUs
Data from Asian carriers &amp; US gateways indicates low utilization, softening growth


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd provides shipping services. The Company offers multi-modal, cargo handling, tariff management, schedule information, and other related services. ZIM Integrated Shipping Services serves clients worldwide.

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025</li>
<li>January's revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost</li>
<li>We take down emerging consensus view that "all trade disruptions are good for carriers"</li>
</ul>


Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025
January's revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost
We take down emerging consensus view that "all trade disruptions are good for carriers"


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

<ul>
<li>Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324</li>
<li>But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction</li>
<li>We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform</li>
</ul>


Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324
But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction
We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform


Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Daniel Hellberg
Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport
• Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

Full Truck Alliance reported impressive Q4 results on Wednesday in the US, featuring stronger-than-expected revenue growth & expert cost control....

Tracking Traffic

It's Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don't Get Easier From Here

Over the past two+ years, SHEIN has faced a deluge of developments that threaten its future growth and profitability, especially in the US.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

Air cargo demand in January 2025 softened, although some of this may be attributed to timing of the LNY holiday. Air cargo utilization is low (and...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers (February 2025)

After a respite in December, container shipping price momentum plunged again in January. We expect rates and profitability to decline sharply in...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic