IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Makino Milling Machine Co., Ltd. manufactures, sells, and repairs machining centers (MCs), electrical dischargers, numerical control (NC) milling machines, and other related industrial machinery.  The Company also produces die/mold manufacturing systems as well as Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAM) and Computer Aided Design (CAD) systems software to support its machine tools.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> has launched its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> at an unchanged JPY11,000. The offer is open from 4 April to 21 May.</li>
<li>The offer was launched despite securing all regulatory approvals and the Board's postponement request. The launch could also be an attempt to thwart a competing proposal.</li>
<li>Despite the launch, Nidec’s offer at current terms has a low chance of success, necessitating revised terms. There remains a medium-to-high probability of a competing proposal.</li>
</ul>



Nidec Corp (6594 JP) has launched its offer for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) at an unchanged JPY11,000. The offer is open from 4 April to 21 May.
The offer was launched despite securing all regulatory approvals and the Board's postponement request. The launch could also be an attempt to thwart a competing proposal.
Despite the launch, Nidec’s offer at current terms has a low chance of success, necessitating revised terms. There remains a medium-to-high probability of a competing proposal.


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Nidec Launches Its Offer

HKBN Ltd., provides telephone voice and data communications services. The Company offers wireless internet service, IDD and IPTV service, local telephony services, and other value-added services.

<ul>
<li>Today’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> monthly update notes that I Squared has completed due diligence and is finalising the terms of a possible preconditional offer. </li>
<li>The I Squared bid will likely be a modest premium to the China Mobile offer with a 50% minimum tendering condition. The key unknown is securing regulatory approvals. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> will first react to an I Squared offer by maintaining terms. However, regardless of whether I Squared secures regulatory approvals, it is likely to match terms. </li>
</ul>


Today’s HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) monthly update notes that I Squared has completed due diligence and is finalising the terms of a possible preconditional offer. 
The I Squared bid will likely be a modest premium to the China Mobile offer with a 50% minimum tendering condition. The key unknown is securing regulatory approvals. 

China Mobile (941 HK) will first react to an I Squared offer by maintaining terms. However, regardless of whether I Squared secures regulatory approvals, it is likely to match terms. 


HKBN (1310 HK): I Squared Inches Closer to a Competing Offer

Dropsuite Limited operates a cloud based software platform. The Company owns commercialized cloud backup software that enables small and medium enterprises to  backup, recover, and protect their digital assets.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/excalibur-mining-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3088:1" rel="noopener">Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU)</a> IE considers NinjaOne’s A$5.90 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$3.92-5.88 valuation range.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. Despite the largest shareholder's selldown, the vote remains low-risk.  </li>
<li>The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for a 30 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.7%/11.5%.  </li>
</ul>


The Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU) IE considers NinjaOne’s A$5.90 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$3.92-5.88 valuation range.
The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. Despite the largest shareholder's selldown, the vote remains low-risk.  
The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for a 30 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.7%/11.5%.  


Equity Capital Markets

Chagee Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of tea drinks products and services. Chagee Holdings serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO. </li>
<li>According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.   </li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO. 
According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.
The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.   


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

Dada Nexus Limited operates a platform for local on-demand retail and delivery. The Company provides a digital solution leveraging the crowdsourcing model to address the challenge of frequent fluctuations brought forward by the nature of on-demand orders and to match the surging demand for delivery capacity with efficient supply. Dada Nexus serves customers in China.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dada-nexus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28961:1" rel="noopener">Dada Nexus (DADA US)</a> disclosed a binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).</li>
<li>The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of voting power. The dissenting condition (less than 12% of outstanding shares) is waivable. </li>
<li>Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.</li>
</ul>



Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of voting power. The dissenting condition (less than 12% of outstanding shares) is waivable. 
Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.


Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

Arun has over 15 years’ experience covering the Technology sector. During this time, he has worked with technology start-ups and as an equity analyst in investment banks and independent research firms. He was formerly a Technology Analyst for Canaccord Genuity, Altium Securities, Espirito Santo Investment Bank, Noble Group and Clear Capital. He has a dual Master’s degree in Financial Engineering and Industrial and Operations Engineering from the University of Michigan. He obtained his Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. He is also a CFA charterholder.

Arun George
IPOs and Catalysts/Events
• Global Equity Research Ltd

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Nidec Launches Its Offer

Despite the launch, Nidec’s offer at current terms has a low chance of success, necessitating revised terms. There remains a medium-to-high...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): I Squared Inches Closer to a Competing Offer

China Mobile will first react to an I Squared offer by maintaining terms. However, regardless of whether I Squared secures regulatory approvals, it...

Arun George

Dropsuite (DSE AU): Scheme Vote on 9 May

The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 30 May payment, the gross/annualised...

Arun George

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.

Arun George