Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Amrutha Raj

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>From January to August 2024, LNG trucks captured 42% of China’s heavy-duty truck market, up from 9% in 2022. This is expected to displace 8% of diesel demand this year. </li>
<li>China’s diesel demand dropped 11% YoY in H1 2024 and is expected to fall 2%-7% in H2, while LNG consumption is projected to rise 7.7% YoY in 2024.</li>
<li>In 2023, LNG truck sales surged 307% YoY to 152,000 units, with sales up another 104% in H1 2024, driving an 8.7% increase in natural gas consumption. </li>
</ul>


From January to August 2024, LNG trucks captured 42% of China’s heavy-duty truck market, up from 9% in 2022. This is expected to displace 8% of diesel demand this year. 
China’s diesel demand dropped 11% YoY in H1 2024 and is expected to fall 2%-7% in H2, while LNG consumption is projected to rise 7.7% YoY in 2024.
In 2023, LNG truck sales surged 307% YoY to 152,000 units, with sales up another 104% in H1 2024, driving an 8.7% increase in natural gas consumption. 


Structural Shift in China’s Energy Mix (Part 2, LNG Trucks)

<ul>
<li>China’s EV sales surpassed ICE car sales for five straight months. From January to November 2024, EV wholesales totalled 11.2 million.  </li>
<li>China’s EV sales reached a record 1.467 million units in November, marking 53% YoY growth and surpassing one million units for the fourth consecutive month. </li>
<li>China’s EV sales are projected to hit 12 million units in 2024, 48.1% YoY increase from 8.1 million in 2023. In 2020, only 1.1 million units were sold in China. </li>
</ul>


China’s EV sales surpassed ICE car sales for five straight months. From January to November 2024, EV wholesales totalled 11.2 million.  
China’s EV sales reached a record 1.467 million units in November, marking 53% YoY growth and surpassing one million units for the fourth consecutive month. 
China’s EV sales are projected to hit 12 million units in 2024, 48.1% YoY increase from 8.1 million in 2023. In 2020, only 1.1 million units were sold in China. 


Structural Shift in China’s Energy Mix (Part 1, EVs)

<ul>
<li>Bunge's Q2 results disappointed markets, leading to a huge selloff as both EPS and revenue missed analyst estimates.</li>
<li>Bunge's agribusiness segment experienced margin compression despite surging volumes resulting in shrinking profits.</li>
<li>The refined and specialty oils segment faced headwinds from lower selling prices. Milling emerged as a bright spot, driven by cost optimization.</li>
</ul>


Bunge's Q2 results disappointed markets, leading to a huge selloff as both EPS and revenue missed analyst estimates.
Bunge's agribusiness segment experienced margin compression despite surging volumes resulting in shrinking profits.
The refined and specialty oils segment faced headwinds from lower selling prices. Milling emerged as a bright spot, driven by cost optimization.


Bunge Q2 Results Disappoint. Lower Margins Eclipse Strong Volume Growth.

<ul>
<li>Wheat prices surged due to strong demand and reduced European harvests. Favorable weather conditions in the US limited further gains.</li>
<li>Corn prices initially rose on strong exports but retreated as the dollar strengthened and focus shifted to abundant supplies.</li>
<li>Soybean prices experienced a short-lived rally due to short covering and a weak dollar. Expectations of record US production and sluggish demand capped gains.</li>
</ul>


Wheat prices surged due to strong demand and reduced European harvests. Favorable weather conditions in the US limited further gains.
Corn prices initially rose on strong exports but retreated as the dollar strengthened and focus shifted to abundant supplies.
Soybean prices experienced a short-lived rally due to short covering and a weak dollar. Expectations of record US production and sluggish demand capped gains.


[Counting Beans 2024/32] Grains Rise on Weak USD But Ample Supplies Limit Gains

<ul>
<li>Wheat trading sideways on weather concerns, but bearish sentiment driven by ample supplies is likely to prevail.</li>
<li>Corn prices rally significantly driven by unfavorable weather conditions and strong export demand. Analysts expect bearish turnaround.</li>
<li>Soybeans recover on US presidential election uncertainty; but speculation is overshadowed by persistent concerns over Chinese demand.</li>
</ul>


Wheat trading sideways on weather concerns, but bearish sentiment driven by ample supplies is likely to prevail.
Corn prices rally significantly driven by unfavorable weather conditions and strong export demand. Analysts expect bearish turnaround.
Soybeans recover on US presidential election uncertainty; but speculation is overshadowed by persistent concerns over Chinese demand.


[CB 29/2024]: Wheat Pressured,Corn Rallies,Soybean Remains Volatile on Political & China Uncertainty