Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Nvidia gave guidance for significantly slower Q/Q growth in Q2</li>
<li>Nvidia and its HBM suppliers have told of shortages, driving hyperscale datacenters to build excess inventory</li>
<li>At the first sign of softness, Nvidia's customers are likely to enter a digestion phase, drastically reducing orders</li>
</ul>


Nvidia gave guidance for significantly slower Q/Q growth in Q2
Nvidia and its HBM suppliers have told of shortages, driving hyperscale datacenters to build excess inventory
At the first sign of softness, Nvidia's customers are likely to enter a digestion phase, drastically reducing orders


Equity Bottom-Up

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

<ul>
<li>Expect Micron to report strength in AI, highlight the company's HBM efforts, and quote McKinsey's trillion-dollar forecast in their earnings call tomorrow</li>
<li>Although Nvidia's growth has really helped the DRAM market, along with 2023 CapEx cuts, there are important concerns of double-ordering which could lead to a collapse soon</li>
<li>Semiconductor market revenues have leveled off since December 2023, hinting a return to more normal growth for the rest of the year</li>
</ul>


Expect Micron to report strength in AI, highlight the company's HBM efforts, and quote McKinsey's trillion-dollar forecast in their earnings call tomorrow
Although Nvidia's growth has really helped the DRAM market, along with 2023 CapEx cuts, there are important concerns of double-ordering which could lead to a collapse soon
Semiconductor market revenues have leveled off since December 2023, hinting a return to more normal growth for the rest of the year


NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia announced another sharp sales increase to $26 billion in quarterly revenues</li>
<li>The company's growth is far greater than hyperscaler CapEx growth, as standard servers yield to AI servers: Bad news for Intel &amp; AMD</li>
<li>Some of this may stem from an inventory build at the hyperscaler, which may lead to another Boom/Bust cycle similar to 2018 and 2022</li>
</ul>


Nvidia announced another sharp sales increase to $26 billion in quarterly revenues
The company's growth is far greater than hyperscaler CapEx growth, as standard servers yield to AI servers: Bad news for Intel &amp; AMD
Some of this may stem from an inventory build at the hyperscaler, which may lead to another Boom/Bust cycle similar to 2018 and 2022


SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

<ul>
<li>SK hynix earnings were announced, with a 10% Q/Q revenue increase driving a 734% increase in operating profit</li>
<li>Although the company cited AI demand as the basis for this, its DRAM revenues, which are very AI dependent, increase very little</li>
<li>NAND SSD demand increased significantly, with a 30% increase in revenues, largely attributable to price increases</li>
</ul>


SK hynix earnings were announced, with a 10% Q/Q revenue increase driving a 734% increase in operating profit
Although the company cited AI demand as the basis for this, its DRAM revenues, which are very AI dependent, increase very little
NAND SSD demand increased significantly, with a 30% increase in revenues, largely attributable to price increases


<ul>
<li>A major earthquake struck Taiwan on April 3, where 25-30% of the world's semiconductor wafers are produced</li>
<li>Most semiconductor fabs are far away from the earthquake's epicenter</li>
<li>Those companies that have issued statements indicate that damage was slight, but there is still likely to be a shortage, which should boost chip maker profitability through 2024</li>
</ul>


A major earthquake struck Taiwan on April 3, where 25-30% of the world's semiconductor wafers are produced
Most semiconductor fabs are far away from the earthquake's epicenter
Those companies that have issued statements indicate that damage was slight, but there is still likely to be a shortage, which should boost chip maker profitability through 2024


Jim Handy of Objective Analysis has over 35 years in the electronics industry including 20 years as a leading semiconductor and SSD industry analyst. Early in his career he held marketing and design positions at leading semiconductor suppliers including Intel, National Semiconductor, and Infineon. A frequent presenter at trade shows, Mr. Handy is known for his technical depth, accurate forecasts, widespread industry presence and volume of publication. He has written hundreds of market reports, articles for trade journals, and white papers, and is frequently interviewed and quoted in the electronics trade press and other media.  He posts blogs at www.TheMemoryGuy.com, and www.TheSSDguy.com.