'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - New Year Rally

Onward Quits Zozo: Another Dent in Zozo's Reputation

Japan: Consistency Scores - Steady Eddies V. Rollercoaster Rides

Zozo: Teething Problems for Private Brand and Signs of Hubris

Zozo: A ¥700 Billion Business in Three Years. Really?

Start Today (3092 JP): Calling the Bluff on Forecasted Growth

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a>
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<div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
ONWARD AND OUT - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a>, formerly Start Today, has been the sixth-most-traded large capitalisation stock over the last ten trading days after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14502" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14750" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14750:1">Rizap (2928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7611" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7611:1">Hoshizaki (6465 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8467" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)</a>. According to Nikkei XTECH, on 25th December apparel maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11370" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11370:1">Onward (8016 JP)</a> suspended selling of its products on ZOZOTOWN and will leave the platform altogether. Although Onward products are estimated to account for less than 3% of total transactions on the site, there are concerns that other apparel makers will follow suit as a result of the emerging direct competition on the site from ZOZO's private label. Since reaching our 4.0 'Overbought' threshold on 9th July 2018, ZOZO shares have corrected by 57% - the worst performance of any large cap from that date - as concerns mounted over the private brand strategy and the behaviour of CEO Yusaku Maezawa.  Since bottoming on 4th January, the shares have risen by 18% following positive comments from the CEO about sales over the New Year holiday period.    
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PRIVATE-LABEL STRETCH GOALS- The 'teething problems' of ZOZO entering the private-label apparel business have been well-documented by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2415" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415">Michael Causton</a> in a recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zozo-teething-problems-for-private-brand-and-signs-of-hubris" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26266">Insight</a> on Smartkarma. Michael rightly questions the feasibility of the company scaling a ¥200b apparel business within the next three years while targeting an additional incremental ¥400b in e-commerce revenue, particularly as it has taken ZOZO twenty years to reach the first ¥100b in annual revenues. In the DETAIL section below, we shall examine ZOZO's current and possible future financial condition as it strives to become one of the top-ten global fashion retailers. 
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'ZOSO' &amp; THE STAIRWAY TO HEAVEN - In addition to some notable purchases of modern art at record-breaking prices, CEO Maezawa also last year booked himself on Space X's first flight to the moon. With apologies, the lyrics of the peerless song from Led Zeppelin's untitled fourth album - known by fans as 'Zoso' after the symbol designed by Jimmy Page for the inner sleeve - come to mind:- 
There's a lad(y) who's sure All that glitters is gold And (s)he's buying a stairway to heaven When(s)he gets there (s)he knows If the stores are all closed With a word (s)he can get what (s)he came for.

ZOZO (3092 JP)

Source: Japan Analytics
ONWARD AND OUT - ZOZO (3092 JP), formerly Start Today, has been the sixth-most-traded large capitalisation stock over the last ten trading days after Benefit One (2412 JP), Rizap (2928 JP), Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP), Hoshizaki (6465 JP), and Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP). According to Nikkei XTECH, on 25th December apparel maker Onward (8016 JP) suspended selling of its products on ZOZOTOWN and will leave the platform altogether. Although Onward products are estimated to account for less than 3% of total transactions on the site, there are concerns that other apparel makers will follow suit as a result of the emerging direct competition on the site from ZOZO's private label. Since reaching our 4.0 'Overbought' threshold on 9th July 2018, ZOZO shares have corrected by 57% - the worst performance of any large cap from that date - as concerns mounted over the private brand strategy and the behaviour of CEO Yusaku Maezawa.  Since bottoming on 4th January, the shares have risen by 18% following positive comments from the CEO about sales over the New Year holiday period.    

PRIVATE-LABEL STRETCH GOALS- The 'teething problems' of ZOZO entering the private-label apparel business have been well-documented by Michael Causton in a recent Insight on Smartkarma. Michael rightly questions the feasibility of the company scaling a ¥200b apparel business within the next three years while targeting an additional incremental ¥400b in e-commerce revenue, particularly as it has taken ZOZO twenty years to reach the first ¥100b in annual revenues. In the DETAIL section below, we shall examine ZOZO's current and possible future financial condition as it strives to become one of the top-ten global fashion retailers. 

'ZOSO' &amp; THE STAIRWAY TO HEAVEN - In addition to some notable purchases of modern art at record-breaking prices, CEO Maezawa also last year booked himself on Space X's first flight to the moon. With apologies, the lyrics of the peerless song from Led Zeppelin's untitled fourth album - known by fans as 'Zoso' after the symbol designed by Jimmy Page for the inner sleeve - come to mind:- 
There's a lad(y) who's sure All that glitters is gold And (s)he's buying a stairway to heaven When(s)he gets there (s)he knows If the stores are all closed With a word (s)he can get what (s)he came for.

ZOZO Inc

ZOZO - Buying a Stairway to Heaven