Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

SMFG - Least Achieved of FY24 Forecast, With Lowest ROE of Mega's & Less JPY Bond Leverage

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our Yield Curve Watch series.</li>
<li>Over the next few days, we will assess all asset classes in relation to the yield curve dynamics and back-test what works and what doesn’t work in various curve regimes.</li>
<li>As most of you have probably noticed by now, we see the steepening case as increasingly compelling from a macro perspective as (What a great day to write that with material bull-flattening across the board)1) The issuance profile will move towards longer durations2) The Manufacturing rebound was driven by an input cost decline (see chart 1)3) The BoJ decision has decreased Japanese incentives to buy USTs (see chart 2)4) Positioning is already loaded with duration5) Headline inflation will likely increase (bull market in commodities) paired with declining core inflation in annual termsThe flattener case will only continue to work if central banks re-accelerate the tightening cycle amidst falling core inflation, which we find unlikely given the recent signal sent by the Fed and the ECB.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our Yield Curve Watch series.
Over the next few days, we will assess all asset classes in relation to the yield curve dynamics and back-test what works and what doesn’t work in various curve regimes.
As most of you have probably noticed by now, we see the steepening case as increasingly compelling from a macro perspective as (What a great day to write that with material bull-flattening across the board)1) The issuance profile will move towards longer durations2) The Manufacturing rebound was driven by an input cost decline (see chart 1)3) The BoJ decision has decreased Japanese incentives to buy USTs (see chart 2)4) Positioning is already loaded with duration5) Headline inflation will likely increase (bull market in commodities) paired with declining core inflation in annual termsThe flattener case will only continue to work if central banks re-accelerate the tightening cycle amidst falling core inflation, which we find unlikely given the recent signal sent by the Fed and the ECB.


iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Yield Curve Watch: Bull, bear, steeper, flatter? Here is what the data suggests