Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

CrossBorder Capital an investment advisory firm specialising in macro-investing. Founded in 1996 with an international client base, CrossBorder focuses on monitoring and understanding global liquidity and capital flows. Our proprietary databases (available to clients) cover 80 countries in depth from 1980 onwards. We take a systematic quantitative methodology that uses this data with AI models to predict financial market movements. The efficacy of our data has been independently verified, and we have an associated but separate asset management division.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

What Goes Up… Err Goes Up? USD Prospects

Don’t Fight The Fedsssssssss….World Money Is Too Tight

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (MXASJ INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We fingerprint the 'typical' Emerging Market Crisis</li>
<li>All EM Crises are 'first-and-foremost' currency crises</li>
<li>The 2018 EM sell-off looks similar, but the cause is the stronger US dollar NOT EM economic imbalances</li>
<li>Conclusion: currency moves are cyclical. Cash generation of EM economies still looks robust</li>
</ul>


We fingerprint the 'typical' Emerging Market Crisis
All EM Crises are 'first-and-foremost' currency crises
The 2018 EM sell-off looks similar, but the cause is the stronger US dollar NOT EM economic imbalances
Conclusion: currency moves are cyclical. Cash generation of EM economies still looks robust


Why Emerging Markets Really Are Different This Time