FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The markets are moving well before the rubber hits the road on the Trump presidency.  Trump will have perhaps the most power of any President in decades with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress, but it will take months and even years before many of his wide range of loosely formed policies are implemented. It appears that some of his more contentious social policy agenda that might threaten growth and confidence have taken a back seat, but he is still facing significant protests in the wake of his election and will need to walk a fine line to placate his supporters that will want quick action on anti-immigration and anti-trade policies, while appeasing the protesters and promoting national unity after a divisive close election.There is significant scope for market upheaval to continue with competing influences of pro-growth infrastructure spending and weak growth anti-trade, anti-globalization, and anti-establishment politics spreading to Europe.  The fall in energy prices also threatens to undermine confidence and reverse some of the recent resurgence in inflation expectations and yields.There were signs that a global recovery was developing before the Trump election, USA employment data just ahead of the election was solid with higher wages, and consumer confidence released last Friday was stronger with a lift in inflation expectations.  Emerging markets, including India, Russia, and Indonesia, have been pursuing reformist agendas that are reaping growth rewards. The infrastructure expansion message from Trump has been the most forthright since his election.  It has struck a chord in the global market with this trend already developing before the election as more nations turn to fiscal expansion as they run out of monetary policy ammunition to boost growth.As such, we see the rise in global bond yields as durable and likely to have persistent effects on global currency markets.  Higher yields will tend to make the Japanese Quantitative Yield Curve Control monetary policy more effective and contribute to a weaker JPY. However, working against the recovery in USD/JPY could be lower energy prices and fears and possible risk aversion that may arise from other aspects of Trump’s policies.The Fed is likely to move forward with a rate hike in December and sound less dovish this week, keeping some upward pressure on the USD more generally.  Surging industrial metals prices may support the AUD more than NZD and other high yielding commodity currencies.  However, the USD may continue to benefit against all EM and commodity currencies as fears over anti-trade policies and higher US yields continue to influence investor sentiment.

The markets are moving well before the rubber hits the road on the Trump presidency.  Trump will have perhaps the most power of any President in decades with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress, but it will take months and even years before many of his wide range of loosely formed policies are implemented. It appears that some of his more contentious social policy agenda that might threaten growth and confidence have taken a back seat, but he is still facing significant protests in the wake of his election and will need to walk a fine line to placate his supporters that will want quick action on anti-immigration and anti-trade policies, while appeasing the protesters and promoting national unity after a divisive close election.There is significant scope for market upheaval to continue with competing influences of pro-growth infrastructure spending and weak growth anti-trade, anti-globalization, and anti-establishment politics spreading to Europe.  The fall in energy prices also threatens to undermine confidence and reverse some of the recent resurgence in inflation expectations and yields.There were signs that a global recovery was developing before the Trump election, USA employment data just ahead of the election was solid with higher wages, and consumer confidence released last Friday was stronger with a lift in inflation expectations.  Emerging markets, including India, Russia, and Indonesia, have been pursuing reformist agendas that are reaping growth rewards. The infrastructure expansion message from Trump has been the most forthright since his election.  It has struck a chord in the global market with this trend already developing before the election as more nations turn to fiscal expansion as they run out of monetary policy ammunition to boost growth.As such, we see the rise in global bond yields as durable and likely to have persistent effects on global currency markets.  Higher yields will tend to make the Japanese Quantitative Yield Curve Control monetary policy more effective and contribute to a weaker JPY. However, working against the recovery in USD/JPY could be lower energy prices and fears and possible risk aversion that may arise from other aspects of Trump’s policies.The Fed is likely to move forward with a rate hike in December and sound less dovish this week, keeping some upward pressure on the USD more generally.  Surging industrial metals prices may support the AUD more than NZD and other high yielding commodity currencies.  However, the USD may continue to benefit against all EM and commodity currencies as fears over anti-trade policies and higher US yields continue to influence investor sentiment.

iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB US)

iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF

USD

Where Does Trump's Rubber Hit the Road?