Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (VOF LN)

Create a little niche in your portfolio for Vietnam. The Dong's stability is assured by sustained export strength and a solid current account surplus (5.5% of GDP in 1H 2016E). Low inflation makes VND yields attractive. And the equity market (though small and illiquid) should move steadily higher despite global volatility.  Vietnam's export strength is underpinned by the fact that the US and EU (rather than China/Japan) are their top destinations, and relocation from southern China continues.   CPI inflation edged up to 2.3% YoY in May, but the real policy rate of +4.2% is among the highest in the world. The VND was unaffected by the 2013 "taper tantrum", and was relatively unscathed by the RMB-induced currency turmoil in August-October 2015. The gradual carve-out of banks' NPLs is helping banks to re-accelerate credit growth.Although the prospects of the TPP appear to have receded in this US election year, a (perhaps mildly modified) version remains likely to be ratified by all members in 2017, providing an additional fillip to Vietnam (which will be its biggest single beneficiary, with its real GDP being bolstered by 1-1.2% a year via the TPP). After a drought-induced setback in 1Q 2016, Vietnam should get closer to 7% real GDP growth through the rest of 2017.

Create a little niche in your portfolio for Vietnam. The Dong's stability is assured by sustained export strength and a solid current account surplus (5.5% of GDP in 1H 2016E). Low inflation makes VND yields attractive. And the equity market (though small and illiquid) should move steadily higher despite global volatility.  Vietnam's export strength is underpinned by the fact that the US and EU (rather than China/Japan) are their top destinations, and relocation from southern China continues.   CPI inflation edged up to 2.3% YoY in May, but the real policy rate of +4.2% is among the highest in the world. The VND was unaffected by the 2013 "taper tantrum", and was relatively unscathed by the RMB-induced currency turmoil in August-October 2015. The gradual carve-out of banks' NPLs is helping banks to re-accelerate credit growth.Although the prospects of the TPP appear to have receded in this US election year, a (perhaps mildly modified) version remains likely to be ratified by all members in 2017, providing an additional fillip to Vietnam (which will be its biggest single beneficiary, with its real GDP being bolstered by 1-1.2% a year via the TPP). After a drought-induced setback in 1Q 2016, Vietnam should get closer to 7% real GDP growth through the rest of 2017. 

Vietnam Enterprise Investments (VIETENI KY)

Vietnam: The Last Remaining East Asian Export Champion Is a Stable Bet