Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The monthly inflation reports have proven to be the catalysts for the repricing of USD rates in recent months and we fear another 1-2 sigma event next week.</li><li>Our calibrated nowcasts have settled on the hottest inflation forecast in town, which will likely prove to be a shocker now that USD duration bets are back in fashion.</li><li>Our nowcasts hint at 0.45% MoM headline inflation and 0.38% MoM core inflation, which is well above consensus at 0.3% MoM for both (see full details in chart 7)The uniformity in the early consensus numbers is striking with right about every analyst on earth expecting a 0.3% MoM print, which has oddly turned into the mechanical monthly forecast every single month.</li></ul>

The monthly inflation reports have proven to be the catalysts for the repricing of USD rates in recent months and we fear another 1-2 sigma event next week.Our calibrated nowcasts have settled on the hottest inflation forecast in town, which will likely prove to be a shocker now that USD duration bets are back in fashion.Our nowcasts hint at 0.45% MoM headline inflation and 0.38% MoM core inflation, which is well above consensus at 0.3% MoM for both (see full details in chart 7)The uniformity in the early consensus numbers is striking with right about every analyst on earth expecting a 0.3% MoM print, which has oddly turned into the mechanical monthly forecast every single month.

USD inflation preview: NO, inflation is not going away folks..