Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The inflation release on Thursday is the most important release of the week and we find consensus to be decently aligned with the underlying trends in US inflation.</li><li>Core inflation is trending around 0.3% MoM in the US and we see no reason for a sharp change in that trend given our price observations and models, and we only see a minor hawkish tilt in our models compared to consensus, but expect the MoM core inflation to print accurately above 0.3%.</li><li>The consensus change for the MoM core inflation is very close to 0.25% given the expectation of 3.8% YoY inflation.</li></ul>

The inflation release on Thursday is the most important release of the week and we find consensus to be decently aligned with the underlying trends in US inflation.Core inflation is trending around 0.3% MoM in the US and we see no reason for a sharp change in that trend given our price observations and models, and we only see a minor hawkish tilt in our models compared to consensus, but expect the MoM core inflation to print accurately above 0.3%.The consensus change for the MoM core inflation is very close to 0.25% given the expectation of 3.8% YoY inflation.

USD-flation Watch: Still not softening as much as Europe