Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

ISM manufacturing new orders have been a reliable 6-month leading indicator of US demand for Asia's exports. While the magnitude of Asia's responses to ISM new orders moderated in the past four years, the cyclical direction did not. Strong ISM new orders in the past 4 months (Mar-Jul 2016) will therefore translate into a strengthening of Asian exports to the US, especially from September 2016 to January 2017. With ISM inventories contracting for 13 consecutive months, new orders should sustain strength for at least a few more months, and US demand for Asian exports should continue growing into early-2017. The recent slump in Asia's exports to the US (in March-May 2016, while the US economy was sluggish) was led by a severe decline in China's (-13% YoY) and Taiwan's (-16% YoY) exports to the US, while Malaysia and Singapore saw their exports to the US expand, and India and Korea's exports declined only marginally. Although the TPP is in political trouble in the US, businesses are behaving as if it is a done deal, and the two TPP members (alongwith Vietnam) are seeing their shares of US imports rise. The other major trend reversal that we have noted is that China's share of US imports has fallen from 24% (on a 3-month moving average basis) in November 2015 to below 19% in May 2016 -- marking a significant reversal after 25 years of more or less continual gains in US market share for China's exporters. ASEAN (including Vietnam), India, Korea and Bangladesh are likely to keep gaining market share and benefit disproportionately from the likely revival in US demand over the next half year and into 1H 2017.

ISM manufacturing new orders have been a reliable 6-month leading indicator of US demand for Asia's exports. While the magnitude of Asia's responses to ISM new orders moderated in the past four years, the cyclical direction did not. Strong ISM new orders in the past 4 months (Mar-Jul 2016) will therefore translate into a strengthening of Asian exports to the US, especially from September 2016 to January 2017. With ISM inventories contracting for 13 consecutive months, new orders should sustain strength for at least a few more months, and US demand for Asian exports should continue growing into early-2017. The recent slump in Asia's exports to the US (in March-May 2016, while the US economy was sluggish) was led by a severe decline in China's (-13% YoY) and Taiwan's (-16% YoY) exports to the US, while Malaysia and Singapore saw their exports to the US expand, and India and Korea's exports declined only marginally. Although the TPP is in political trouble in the US, businesses are behaving as if it is a done deal, and the two TPP members (alongwith Vietnam) are seeing their shares of US imports rise. The other major trend reversal that we have noted is that China's share of US imports has fallen from 24% (on a 3-month moving average basis) in November 2015 to below 19% in May 2016 -- marking a significant reversal after 25 years of more or less continual gains in US market share for China's exporters. ASEAN (including Vietnam), India, Korea and Bangladesh are likely to keep gaining market share and benefit disproportionately from the likely revival in US demand over the next half year and into 1H 2017.  

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North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund

US Demand Will Buoy Asia (Ex-China) In the Next Half-Year