Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Companies Preserve Profit Margins Via Higher Prices to Avoid Repeat of 2000-2003 Environment

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US non-financial corporations' debt exposure has risen since the global financial crisis. Tighter bank lending standards will raise borrowing costs, while a higher federal funds rate raises debt servicing costs. </li>
<li>The 2023 Q1 US corporate earnings reporting season should confirm the arrival of a corporate profits recession, while another contraction is expected in Q2.</li>
<li>Labour hoarding and falling profits make the current environment similar to the onset of the 2001 recession: corporations were eventually forced to reduce headcount to stabilise earnings and stock prices.</li>
</ul>


US non-financial corporations' debt exposure has risen since the global financial crisis. Tighter bank lending standards will raise borrowing costs, while a higher federal funds rate raises debt servicing costs. 
The 2023 Q1 US corporate earnings reporting season should confirm the arrival of a corporate profits recession, while another contraction is expected in Q2.
Labour hoarding and falling profits make the current environment similar to the onset of the 2001 recession: corporations were eventually forced to reduce headcount to stabilise earnings and stock prices.


US Corporate Outlook: Credit and Labour Hoarding Profit Risks Lurk in the Background