Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Corporate Outlook: Credit and Labour Hoarding Profit Risks Lurk in the Background

Efforts to Preserve Operating Margins Produce Inflation and US Equity Valuation Concerns

Lack of Labour Market Slack and Preserving High Operating Margins Precludes Fed Policy Pivot

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US equity prices declined -20% in real terms from 2021 Q4 to 2023 Q1, identical in magnitude to what transpired over the same time period after the internet bubble peak.</li>
<li>In contrast to the late-1990s, corporations are responding to rising unit labour costs by increasing selling prices, but this has produced economy-wide inflation.</li>
<li>Investors cannot have both rich equity valuations and high operating margins when the latter is due to companies simply raising prices to cover higher costs.</li>
</ul>


US equity prices declined -20% in real terms from 2021 Q4 to 2023 Q1, identical in magnitude to what transpired over the same time period after the internet bubble peak.
In contrast to the late-1990s, corporations are responding to rising unit labour costs by increasing selling prices, but this has produced economy-wide inflation.
Investors cannot have both rich equity valuations and high operating margins when the latter is due to companies simply raising prices to cover higher costs.


US Companies Preserve Profit Margins Via Higher Prices to Avoid Repeat of 2000-2003 Environment