Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

A Friendly Turn in the South China Sea or a Capitulation to Chinese Hegemony?

Trade Becomes an Arena for US-China Contention

Trump and Asia: A New and More Troubling Phase Ahead

The Global Environment Turns Riskier for Asia: Expect More Shocks

“America First” Takes Shape – and It Could Get a Lot Worse

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Escalating tit-for-tat trade measures between the US and China appear to raise the risk of a trade war. However, the widening trade spat between the two nations must be seen in the wider context of their bilateral relationship.</li><li>Given that the US now sees China as a strategic rival whose wings must be clipped, the underlying causes of tension will now be easily resolved and will result in a fundamental deterioration of US-China relations in the longer term.</li><li>For exporting nations in Asia, the free trade regime will become less open. They will be pressured to make concessions on their import policies, exchange rate management and treatment of foreign investors, particularly for those with large current account surpluses.</li></ul>

Escalating tit-for-tat trade measures between the US and China appear to raise the risk of a trade war. However, the widening trade spat between the two nations must be seen in the wider context of their bilateral relationship.Given that the US now sees China as a strategic rival whose wings must be clipped, the underlying causes of tension will now be easily resolved and will result in a fundamental deterioration of US-China relations in the longer term.For exporting nations in Asia, the free trade regime will become less open. They will be pressured to make concessions on their import policies, exchange rate management and treatment of foreign investors, particularly for those with large current account surpluses.

US-China Squabble: No Trade War but Bigger Risks Lurk