Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK wage growth has slowed, but settlements in the critical January round are similar in 2024 to 2023. These deals prevent wage growth from slowing to target-consistent rates.</li><li>Employers intend to increase pay by less in 2024 than last year’s plans while still exceeding 2022’s. Actual rises are state-dependent and have exceeded past intentions.</li><li>We expect economic resilience to keep wage growth persistently elevated, encouraging the BoE to delay its first rate cut until Feb-25, beyond the MPC’s likely current view.</li></ul><p></p>

UK wage growth has slowed, but settlements in the critical January round are similar in 2024 to 2023. These deals prevent wage growth from slowing to target-consistent rates.Employers intend to increase pay by less in 2024 than last year’s plans while still exceeding 2022’s. Actual rises are state-dependent and have exceeded past intentions.We expect economic resilience to keep wage growth persistently elevated, encouraging the BoE to delay its first rate cut until Feb-25, beyond the MPC’s likely current view.

UK Wages Still Settling Too High