Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Retail Faces Painful Consumer Awakening

UK: Narrow Retail Rise in Broad Recession

UK: Retail Recovery Rotated off High Streets

UK: Recovery Lags in Most Sectors Through June

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>Retail sales more than fully recovered their pre-lockdown level in July, but this remains supported by the rotation away from consumer services. Non-food store sales are still 6.5% lower than February, with sales in high street outlets far worse.</em></li>
<li><em>Non-retail activity resumed later, so the GDP rebound has lagged retail sales by about a month, but it is also only matching about 70% of the pace. New habits can harm output by occurring at a lower cost while creating severe relative losers.</em></li>
</ul>


Retail sales more than fully recovered their pre-lockdown level in July, but this remains supported by the rotation away from consumer services. Non-food store sales are still 6.5% lower than February, with sales in high street outlets far worse.
Non-retail activity resumed later, so the GDP rebound has lagged retail sales by about a month, but it is also only matching about 70% of the pace. New habits can harm output by occurring at a lower cost while creating severe relative losers.


UK: New Retail Habits Persisting in Jul-20