Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Retail Recovery Rotated off High Streets

UK: GDP Starts Recovery Within a Brutal Q2

UK: New Retail Habits Persisting in Jul-20

UK: Recovery Lags in Most Sectors Through June

UK: 40% Recovery in May-20 Split Unevenly

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP bounced by only 1.8% m-o-m in May-20 from its depressed lows. Although the ONS confirmed an initial recovery in retail, manufacturing and construction, these sectors are now proven to be outliers ahead of lockdown easing elsewhere.</li>
<li>I remain relatively gloomy about the rebound, as strong signals are mostly about the leading sectors and say more about timing than the extent of recovery. Such disappointment should motivate another QE expansion, in my view.</li>
<li>Separately, the OBR has materially re-profiled the shock towards my forecast, with two years to recover the output level, a persistent loss relative to the previous trend, and a belated rise in the UR. The BoE may follow suit soon.</li>
</ul>


UK GDP bounced by only 1.8% m-o-m in May-20 from its depressed lows. Although the ONS confirmed an initial recovery in retail, manufacturing and construction, these sectors are now proven to be outliers ahead of lockdown easing elsewhere.
I remain relatively gloomy about the rebound, as strong signals are mostly about the leading sectors and say more about timing than the extent of recovery. Such disappointment should motivate another QE expansion, in my view.
Separately, the OBR has materially re-profiled the shock towards my forecast, with two years to recover the output level, a persistent loss relative to the previous trend, and a belated rise in the UR. The BoE may follow suit soon.


UK: GDP Limping from Lows in May-20