Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The unemployment rate declined to 4.7% in Jun-21 on surprisingly jobs-rich growth. That is 12bps better than we expected, despite previously surveyed cohorts reporting higher unemployment. Stalled population growth flatters the employment rate.</li>
<li>About 8% of employees either remain on furlough or off-payroll since covid-hit. The normalisation of work is slowing after previous easy wins on re-opening. We still expect the UR to rise in H2, contrary to the BoE’s bullish forecast.</li>
<li>Headline wage growth has now surged to its spuriously elevated peak and will subside rapidly as the base effects flip. Wage growth in H1 was under 1.5%, which is less an inflationary concern than the flat provisional productivity estimate for H1.</li>
</ul>


The unemployment rate declined to 4.7% in Jun-21 on surprisingly jobs-rich growth. That is 12bps better than we expected, despite previously surveyed cohorts reporting higher unemployment. Stalled population growth flatters the employment rate.
About 8% of employees either remain on furlough or off-payroll since covid-hit. The normalisation of work is slowing after previous easy wins on re-opening. We still expect the UR to rise in H2, contrary to the BoE’s bullish forecast.
Headline wage growth has now surged to its spuriously elevated peak and will subside rapidly as the base effects flip. Wage growth in H1 was under 1.5%, which is less an inflationary concern than the flat provisional productivity estimate for H1.


UK: Jobs-Rich First Half to 2021