Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Core Raises Inflation Again in Sep-22

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK government doubled down on its energy price support, subtracting 0.4pp from our Oct-22 inflation forecast. The risk of the ONS not counting it is now worth 0.8pp.</li>
<li>Other measures may follow later, like removing the 5% VAT on electricity bills. Changing the headline VAT rate is a risk attracting significant market attention.</li>
<li>A 2.5pp VAT cut would probably take almost 1pp off headline inflation within two months. Some firms may take the opportunity to restore their profit margins.</li>
</ul>


The UK government doubled down on its energy price support, subtracting 0.4pp from our Oct-22 inflation forecast. The risk of the ONS not counting it is now worth 0.8pp.
Other measures may follow later, like removing the 5% VAT on electricity bills. Changing the headline VAT rate is a risk attracting significant market attention.
A 2.5pp VAT cut would probably take almost 1pp off headline inflation within two months. Some firms may take the opportunity to restore their profit margins.


UK: Fiscal Measures Against Inflation