Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Technology sector in Asia mostly, and Global Tech in a couple of jobs. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA and Macquarie. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered Asian semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the global Semi supply chain. In addition to stock coverage, he also publishes research on sectors as that often shows clearer trends and pinpoints the inflection points in a sharper way. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Tech News This Week. Apple AI, TSMC, Korea's Giga-Fund, Stargate

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

TSMC To Invest A Further $100 Billion In Arizona

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Feb-2025): Trump pressures TSMC to partner with Intel for US ties.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s first 3 Fabs (capacity 80k wafer/month for US$65bn) start production from 2025 to 2030. The newly announced next 3 Fabs (90k, $100bn) should roll  out over 2030-35.</li>
<li>Given Capex in the US is 70% higher than in Taiwan, wafer price will be ~45% higher.</li>
<li>That’s probably why only 12% of TSMC EUV capacity will be in the US by 2030. Customers want more supply security but cost matters.</li>
</ul>


TSMC’s first 3 Fabs (capacity 80k wafer/month for US$65bn) start production from 2025 to 2030. The newly announced next 3 Fabs (90k, $100bn) should roll  out over 2030-35.
Given Capex in the US is 70% higher than in Taiwan, wafer price will be ~45% higher.
That’s probably why only 12% of TSMC EUV capacity will be in the US by 2030. Customers want more supply security but cost matters.


TSMC US$100bn Investment in Arizona: Some Context