Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

TSMC: Precariously Balanced; Robust Medium-Term Earnings Outlook and Discount Valuation Levels

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): 1Q22 Beats Our Forecast; 2Q22 Revenue Is in Line, and GM/OPM Beats Forecast

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): The Outlook Is Positive in 2Q22, and Wafer Price Lift Is Not Decided Yet.

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s 1Q results were extremely strong with revenue 4.15% above consensus and OP 9.04% above consensus. </li>
<li>With the strong pricing power and favourable forex factored in consensus OP estimates for the year have moved up to TWD954bn in line with our start of year estimate. </li>
<li>However, that now leaves limited further upside in our view and we expect earnings to decline next year rather than rise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC’s 1Q results were extremely strong with revenue 4.15% above consensus and OP 9.04% above consensus. 
With the strong pricing power and favourable forex factored in consensus OP estimates for the year have moved up to TWD954bn in line with our start of year estimate. 
However, that now leaves limited further upside in our view and we expect earnings to decline next year rather than rise.


TSMC – Great 1Q But Scope For Further Good News Looks Limited