Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Trade War/Huawei/Liquidity/UK & PRC/Hong Kong

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

David Rosenberg advanced an intriguing theory last week. Could Trump be weakening the economy sufficiently for the Fed to cut rates, and then call off the trade war so the stock market could soar ahead of the 2020 election?
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Will the Fed play ball? The market is now discounting three rate cuts by year-end, with the first one at the July FOMC meeting. This matters to equity investors. An historical study from Barclays showed that the stock market tends to have a strong positive reaction a month after the first rate cut, and returns were even stronger after six months.
We believe that if the Fed were to respond and cut rates, the most likely cut would first occur at the September FOMC meeting. In that case, will the on again, off again trade tensions drag on until Q3 or Q4? If so, expect a choppy range-bound and headline-driven market until the end of the summer and into the fall.

David Rosenberg advanced an intriguing theory last week. Could Trump be weakening the economy sufficiently for the Fed to cut rates, and then call off the trade war so the stock market could soar ahead of the 2020 election?

Will the Fed play ball? The market is now discounting three rate cuts by year-end, with the first one at the July FOMC meeting. This matters to equity investors. An historical study from Barclays showed that the stock market tends to have a strong positive reaction a month after the first rate cut, and returns were even stronger after six months.
We believe that if the Fed were to respond and cut rates, the most likely cut would first occur at the September FOMC meeting. In that case, will the on again, off again trade tensions drag on until Q3 or Q4? If so, expect a choppy range-bound and headline-driven market until the end of the summer and into the fall.

Trump Vs. The Fed