New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Transport Titbits — International Travel</h2>
IATA’s international air passenger data for September, published this morning, highlights a slowdown of global demand across its airline members. Industry-wide RPKs (revenue passenger kms) has slowed to +3.0% below the long-run average of +5% to +6%. Global international capacity (in available seat km terms) grew +2.6% in September, signalling an improvement in load factors.&nbsp;
“September marked the eighth consecutive month of below average demand growth. Given the environment of declining world trade activity and tariff wars, rising political and geopolitical tensions and a slowing global economy, it is difficult to see the trend reversing in the near term” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.&nbsp;
Closer to home New Zealand international pax growth has continued to slow through 2019. Year to date international passenger growth is up[ +1.8%, having slowed from +4.4% in 2018, +7.2% in 2017 and +9.5% in 2016, according to NZ Stats data.&nbsp;
The outlook for 2020 remains subdued. While there have been a number of new services announced in recent weeks (Air New Zealand’s Auckland-New York, American Airlines’ Christchurch-Los Angeles &amp; Auckland-Dallas) these all commence in October 2020 and will only operate 3x weekly, therefore they will not provide a significant boost to passenger numbers. Moreover the American services will be seasonal.&nbsp;
The demand downturn appears set-in for the foreseeable future reflecting a more subdued global economic backdrop. &nbsp;
Andy Bowley&nbsp; Head of Research Forsyth Barr Limited
T:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;+64 4 495 8246 M:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; +64 21 338 941 TF:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;0800 367 227 F:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;+64 4 495 8193 P:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;PO Box: 5266, Wellington 6145 W: &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; <a href="https://foundry.smartkarma.com/www.forsythbarr.co.nz" target="_blank" rel="noopener">www.forsythbarr.co.nz</a> Twitter:&nbsp; @forsythbarr

Transport Titbits — International Travel
IATA’s international air passenger data for September, published this morning, highlights a slowdown of global demand across its airline members. Industry-wide RPKs (revenue passenger kms) has slowed to +3.0% below the long-run average of +5% to +6%. Global international capacity (in available seat km terms) grew +2.6% in September, signalling an improvement in load factors.&nbsp;
“September marked the eighth consecutive month of below average demand growth. Given the environment of declining world trade activity and tariff wars, rising political and geopolitical tensions and a slowing global economy, it is difficult to see the trend reversing in the near term” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.&nbsp;
Closer to home New Zealand international pax growth has continued to slow through 2019. Year to date international passenger growth is up[ +1.8%, having slowed from +4.4% in 2018, +7.2% in 2017 and +9.5% in 2016, according to NZ Stats data.&nbsp;
The outlook for 2020 remains subdued. While there have been a number of new services announced in recent weeks (Air New Zealand’s Auckland-New York, American Airlines’ Christchurch-Los Angeles &amp; Auckland-Dallas) these all commence in October 2020 and will only operate 3x weekly, therefore they will not provide a significant boost to passenger numbers. Moreover the American services will be seasonal.&nbsp;
The demand downturn appears set-in for the foreseeable future reflecting a more subdued global economic backdrop. &nbsp;
Andy Bowley&nbsp; Head of Research Forsyth Barr Limited
T:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;+64 4 495 8246 M:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; +64 21 338 941 TF:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;0800 367 227 F:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;+64 4 495 8193 P:&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;PO Box: 5266, Wellington 6145 W: &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; www.forsythbarr.co.nz Twitter:&nbsp; @forsythbarr

Transport Titbits — International Travel