Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​11 - Mitsubishi Estate, Toshiba, GMOs

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​12 McDonald's, Nissan, Hikari, H'hodo

Nissan – Finance Segment Supportive but Underperforming Peers

Toshiba – SK Hynix’s Acquisition of Intel’s NAND Operations Hurts Kioxia’s Value

Toshiba – Kioxia’s Postponed IPO Is NOT About US-China Tensions and That Means More Downside Risk

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Toshiba’s 2Q results missed consensus estimates with revenue of ¥772bn undershooting by 5.6% while OP of ¥15.7bn undershot by 51%. The latter number is less of a concern than it looks given the heavy weighting of profitability towards 4Q but as we have been warning Toshiba appears to be trying to hit unrealistic OP targets to please activists and we believe it is increasingly clear that they are unlikely to succeed. It is, however, cheap and has underperformed of late.</p>

Toshiba’s 2Q results missed consensus estimates with revenue of ¥772bn undershooting by 5.6% while OP of ¥15.7bn undershot by 51%. The latter number is less of a concern than it looks given the heavy weighting of profitability towards 4Q but as we have been warning Toshiba appears to be trying to hit unrealistic OP targets to please activists and we believe it is increasingly clear that they are unlikely to succeed. It is, however, cheap and has underperformed of late.

Toshiba – On Track to Hit Imaginary “If Only COVID Hadn’t Happened” Guidance

Toshiba Corp

Toshiba – On Track to Hit Imaginary “If Only COVID Hadn’t Happened” Guidance