Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

TEL:  Medium Term Plan boosts EVERYthing: Div, Payout Ratio, Margins, Expectations

Event-Driven

Tokyo Electron shares have&nbsp;had an eventful year. In late February, the shares were at 9,000 yen ahead of its expected merger with Applied Materials - and that was a decent discount to its AMAT-adjusted price.&nbsp;As machinery orders and SPE equipment order growth faltered late in Q1 and early Q2 globally, the whole sector fell somewhat. Then at end-April Tokyo Electron and Applied Materials announced the termination of their deal. Arbitrageurs bailed and long-only fund managers dumped AMAT on a lack of synergies to be realized.&nbsp;TEL's buyback started, the stock rose. TEL upped its dividend forecast and dividend payout policy and FY2016 DPS forecast. Then lowered earnings forecasts and DPS forecast. Last week it upped them all again. And the buyback continues.&nbsp;The buyback has interesting impact on the stock and its dynamics. Investors should understand the flow dynamics now, later, and longer-term. There is a bit of positive, and a bit of negative. DPS should be supportive.More below the fold.&nbsp;

Tokyo Electron shares have&nbsp;had an eventful year. In late February, the shares were at 9,000 yen ahead of its expected merger with Applied Materials - and that was a decent discount to its AMAT-adjusted price.&nbsp;As machinery orders and SPE equipment order growth faltered late in Q1 and early Q2 globally, the whole sector fell somewhat. Then at end-April Tokyo Electron and Applied Materials announced the termination of their deal. Arbitrageurs bailed and long-only fund managers dumped AMAT on a lack of synergies to be realized.&nbsp;TEL's buyback started, the stock rose. TEL upped its dividend forecast and dividend payout policy and FY2016 DPS forecast. Then lowered earnings forecasts and DPS forecast. Last week it upped them all again. And the buyback continues.&nbsp;The buyback has interesting impact on the stock and its dynamics. Investors should understand the flow dynamics now, later, and longer-term. There is a bit of positive, and a bit of negative. DPS should be supportive.More below the fold.&nbsp;

TOKYO ELECTRON: Old Dog New Tricks: Buyback Bone Nearly Chewed Up. What Next?