Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Pranav Bhavsar & the team at India Independent Insight (Iii), provide research on consumer companies operating or have exposure to in India. The research methodology focuses on carrying out on-the-ground channel surveillance/checks that include supplier/distributor/customer interactions, access to industry experts, and bespoke primary data sources that aid in providing unique insights and counter consensus ideas.  

Leveraging the team's forensic analysis along with channel surveillance, the team at Iii also aids investors in early identification of changing consumer trends, identification and quantification of accounting/governance risks, and the associated impact on the business model of the company.

Pranav has over 15 years of experience in the Indian equity market, and has worked with some of the global activists, long only and PE funds for their India projects. Prior roles also include building and leading an institutional sell-side desk. In his free time, Pranav is a traveler, biker, and a young Indian contributing to the country’s social and economic development.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Postcard from Surat (India) | Studded Jewellery Unlikely to Aid in Margin Expansion for Titan

Titan | Takeaways from Interaction with a Tanishq Franchise Store Owner

Postcard from Lucknow (India) | The Road to USD 5 Trillion

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Titan Company Limited manufactures and sells watches, jewellery, eyewear, and other accessories and products in India and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Watches, Jewellery, Eyewear, and others. It is one of the few companies operating in organised jewellery retail industry of India. We visit stores &amp; markets in Kochi (Kerela) and Chennai (Tamil Nadu), the biggest consumption markets to understand structural changes that have taken place in the industry, with an objective to tweak our revenue and margin estimates. We believe consensus might be underestimating growth from the jewellery segment which is the largest contributor with 81.60% of Sales as of FY2018. Our revenue estimates for FY19 and FY20 are 5.8% &amp; 2.98% higher than consensus, primarily based on higher than expected market share gains from unorganised players. Our EBITDA margins for FY 19 &amp; FY20 are 1% &amp; 1.30% higher than consensus estimates primarily based on product mix which is in favour of studded jewellery and operating leverage as sales across stores pick up.  Our EPS for FY19 &amp; FY20 is estimated at INR 18.60 and INR 24.26 per share which is higher than consensus by INR 2.47 and 4.05 per share for FY 19 and FY 20.  Based on an average forward multiple of 49x we arrive at a target price of INR 1187, representing a 30% potential return from current market price. </p>

Titan Company Limited manufactures and sells watches, jewellery, eyewear, and other accessories and products in India and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Watches, Jewellery, Eyewear, and others. It is one of the few companies operating in organised jewellery retail industry of India. We visit stores &amp; markets in Kochi (Kerela) and Chennai (Tamil Nadu), the biggest consumption markets to understand structural changes that have taken place in the industry, with an objective to tweak our revenue and margin estimates. We believe consensus might be underestimating growth from the jewellery segment which is the largest contributor with 81.60% of Sales as of FY2018. Our revenue estimates for FY19 and FY20 are 5.8% &amp; 2.98% higher than consensus, primarily based on higher than expected market share gains from unorganised players. Our EBITDA margins for FY 19 &amp; FY20 are 1% &amp; 1.30% higher than consensus estimates primarily based on product mix which is in favour of studded jewellery and operating leverage as sales across stores pick up.  Our EPS for FY19 &amp; FY20 is estimated at INR 18.60 and INR 24.26 per share which is higher than consensus by INR 2.47 and 4.05 per share for FY 19 and FY 20.  Based on an average forward multiple of 49x we arrive at a target price of INR 1187, representing a 30% potential return from current market price. 

Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) | Channel Checks Suggest Revenue Growth Might Beat Consensus