Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

The Week At Glance: A look at US Cycle indicators. You sure consensus is right?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little.</li><li>Markets are pricing a small “insurance premium” for the September FOMC meeting, leaving more than 25bp in the forward pricing despite a week of mostly hawkish surprises last week.</li><li>Everything this week is about watching USDJPY price action again, as it has the potential to impact all assets.</li></ul>

We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little.Markets are pricing a small “insurance premium” for the September FOMC meeting, leaving more than 25bp in the forward pricing despite a week of mostly hawkish surprises last week.Everything this week is about watching USDJPY price action again, as it has the potential to impact all assets.

The Week At A Glance: Recession or not?