New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

Warehouse Group Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a less-worse-than-expected 1H25 result.</li><li>While sales declines moderated in 2Q25, heightened promotional activity and aged inventory resulted in c.-170 bps of group gross margin contraction and a -7% decline in gross profit versus 1H24.</li><li>WHS guided to a 2H25 pre-IFRS 16 EBIT (‘Operating Profit’) loss of -NZ$14m, in line with 2H24. We think there is downside to 2H25 guidance, given: (1) heightened promotional pressure and gross margin exit run-rates in 2Q25; and (2) our expectation that domestic consumer spending remains subdued over the next six months. </li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a less-worse-than-expected 1H25 result.While sales declines moderated in 2Q25, heightened promotional activity and aged inventory resulted in c.-170 bps of group gross margin contraction and a -7% decline in gross profit versus 1H24.WHS guided to a 2H25 pre-IFRS 16 EBIT (‘Operating Profit’) loss of -NZ$14m, in line with 2H24. We think there is downside to 2H25 guidance, given: (1) heightened promotional pressure and gross margin exit run-rates in 2Q25; and (2) our expectation that domestic consumer spending remains subdued over the next six months. 

The Warehouse Group - 1H25 Result—Tough Going