FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

USD Cover Pressure with Weaker EM FX Linked to Equity Peaks

Phase II of Fed Policy Normalization May See Bigger Dollar Fall

AUD Clouds Clearing, GBP Storm Clouds Brewing

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The USD has fallen further in recent weeks as the Fed indicated it is more concerned about low inflation outcomes.  The shift in focus to QE balance sheet run down also points to a slower and more uncertain path of Fed rate rises over the coming year. The market still sees a 50% chance that the Fed hikes a third time by year end.  However, it barely has one additional hike priced in for each of the next two years.  The rates curve is already quite flat.  The USD has fallen sharply this year and may already have factored in a more subdued outlook for US rate rises.  The near term for the USD remains clouded by the approaching debt ceiling problem that is intertwined with budget and spending bills.  The latest Trump machinations may also be increasing political uncertainty.  However, consumer and business confidence remains elevated since the election, the most recent US economic indicators have improved, and the labor market continues to tighten.  Political uncertainty has not significantly spilled over to weaker growth.  These do not seem like great levels to consider selling the USD.  We see scope for it to recover in the coming six to 12 months.  However, it faces increased uncertainty in the next few months.</em></p>

The USD has fallen further in recent weeks as the Fed indicated it is more concerned about low inflation outcomes.  The shift in focus to QE balance sheet run down also points to a slower and more uncertain path of Fed rate rises over the coming year. The market still sees a 50% chance that the Fed hikes a third time by year end.  However, it barely has one additional hike priced in for each of the next two years.  The rates curve is already quite flat.  The USD has fallen sharply this year and may already have factored in a more subdued outlook for US rate rises.  The near term for the USD remains clouded by the approaching debt ceiling problem that is intertwined with budget and spending bills.  The latest Trump machinations may also be increasing political uncertainty.  However, consumer and business confidence remains elevated since the election, the most recent US economic indicators have improved, and the labor market continues to tighten.  Political uncertainty has not significantly spilled over to weaker growth.  These do not seem like great levels to consider selling the USD.  We see scope for it to recover in the coming six to 12 months.  However, it faces increased uncertainty in the next few months.

The USD Has Fallen in Anticipation of a Lower Fed Rates Path, but the Outlook Is Not All Bad