Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

FIFO Long Transition and Lead Signals for a Low in Asia

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The WSJ recently listed the factors leading to the past recessions in G7 economies since 1960. Of the 111 factor occurrences, China is at high risk in 59, or 53%, of those instances, if you add in the potential of a currency war, as well as a trade war.
We have heard these kinds of China scare stories before, but this amounts to a "this will not end well" story if there is no bearish trigger.
The bearish trigger may be seen in the share prices of over-leveraged Chinese property developers, which have been performing dismally. We believe that these stocks represent real-time canaries in the coalmine of an over-leveraged sector. Such a development has grave implications for China, and possibly for the prospects of the global economic and financial systems.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/067/242/original/China%20global%20growth%20contribution.jpg?1540066496" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="67242"></figure>

The WSJ recently listed the factors leading to the past recessions in G7 economies since 1960. Of the 111 factor occurrences, China is at high risk in 59, or 53%, of those instances, if you add in the potential of a currency war, as well as a trade war.
We have heard these kinds of China scare stories before, but this amounts to a "this will not end well" story if there is no bearish trigger.
The bearish trigger may be seen in the share prices of over-leveraged Chinese property developers, which have been performing dismally. We believe that these stocks represent real-time canaries in the coalmine of an over-leveraged sector. Such a development has grave implications for China, and possibly for the prospects of the global economic and financial systems.


The Storm Brewing in Asia