Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Ugly, Disorderly Debate Raises the Spectre of 1824, if Not 1860

The Trade War Is Set to Worsen, as China Falls Far Short of Meeting Phase 1 Targets

Trump's "Law & Order" Message Tightens the Polls, but Biden-Harris Still Well Ahead

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Like his hero Andrew Jackson in 1824-28, Trump wants to begin running again for president four years hence. The second impeachment will slow those plans (but not derail them except in the unlikely event of 17 GOP Senators voting to convict him). Ironically Biden and the Republican leadership are united in wanting to shift the focus away from Trump in the next few months. A big stimulus will be market-positive, but sentiment is likely to change once Biden (enabled by control of the Senate) proposes the big hike in corporate tax rates in his Budget next month. Near-term positive for over-stretched markets, until fiscal/debt realities are reckoned with.  The final step in the US election process was completed on 6th January 2021, but not with the peaceful transition that is normal. Instead, a violent mob invaded the US Capitol at outgoing President Trump's instigation (alongside more incendiary calls from his surrogates such as Rudy Giuliani, who demanded "trial by combat"), resulting in 5 deaths and untold destruction of national property and tradition. Vice President Pence announced Biden's election as president in the early hours of 7th January (after Congress had certified the Electoral College count), and called the National Guard into action to counter the mob of Trump supporters. On 8th January, President Trump too formally denounced the violence, having acknowledged the previous night that a new administration would take office, and he would cooperate in the transition.  The violence on Capitol Hill was not an unprecedented response to a US election: in 1861, several states seceded before Lincoln's inauguration and a 4-year Civil War ensued. In 1824, Andrew Jackson denounced the outcome of the election (decided in the House because the Electoral College outcome wasn't decisive), and he began running for president almost immediately for the 1828 election. But this time, a sitting President was inciting the mob. This is different from 1824, since Andrew Jackson was not the incumbent; this time, the incumbent president is likely to face indictments and prosecution for inciting murder, and possibly disqualification from future public office. Although Trumpism is likely to live on, it has been wounded, and the Republican party is likely to spend the next few months confronting an internal struggle between the Trump and anti-Trump wings. The latter was almost non-existent in 2020, but has re-emerged since 6 Jan 2021.  From the perspective of politics in 2021, the more significant outcome on 6 January was that the Democrats won both the run-off races for the US Senate from Georgia, Raphael Warnock becoming the first Black and Jon Ossoff the first Jewish person elected to the US Senate from Georgia (Warnock is also only the 10th Black ever elected to the Senate). This ensures that the Democrats will have 50 of the 100 Senate seats, plus Vice President-elect Kamala Harris having the casting vote. So, in effect, there was a mild Blue Wave in the 2020 election, and the Democrats will control the White House, Senate (by a casting vote) and the House (by a narrow majority, with 222 of the 435 seats, reduced to 219 seats after Biden nominated three House members to his Cabinet). President-elect Biden has already nominated a centrist Cabinet, and is likely to retain his focus on a centrist agenda, eschewing the ideas of the left-wing of his party. The narrowness of the  Democratic majority in Congress makes it impossible to pursue a more radical program.  Despite clear evidence of Trump's incitement to the crowd on 6 January, only 10 House Republicans voted to impeach him a second time. The US still remains polarized, and Biden's centrist Cabinet is likely to aim primarily at reconciliation.

Like his hero Andrew Jackson in 1824-28, Trump wants to begin running again for president four years hence. The second impeachment will slow those plans (but not derail them except in the unlikely event of 17 GOP Senators voting to convict him). Ironically Biden and the Republican leadership are united in wanting to shift the focus away from Trump in the next few months. A big stimulus will be market-positive, but sentiment is likely to change once Biden (enabled by control of the Senate) proposes the big hike in corporate tax rates in his Budget next month. Near-term positive for over-stretched markets, until fiscal/debt realities are reckoned with.  The final step in the US election process was completed on 6th January 2021, but not with the peaceful transition that is normal. Instead, a violent mob invaded the US Capitol at outgoing President Trump's instigation (alongside more incendiary calls from his surrogates such as Rudy Giuliani, who demanded "trial by combat"), resulting in 5 deaths and untold destruction of national property and tradition. Vice President Pence announced Biden's election as president in the early hours of 7th January (after Congress had certified the Electoral College count), and called the National Guard into action to counter the mob of Trump supporters. On 8th January, President Trump too formally denounced the violence, having acknowledged the previous night that a new administration would take office, and he would cooperate in the transition.  The violence on Capitol Hill was not an unprecedented response to a US election: in 1861, several states seceded before Lincoln's inauguration and a 4-year Civil War ensued. In 1824, Andrew Jackson denounced the outcome of the election (decided in the House because the Electoral College outcome wasn't decisive), and he began running for president almost immediately for the 1828 election. But this time, a sitting President was inciting the mob. This is different from 1824, since Andrew Jackson was not the incumbent; this time, the incumbent president is likely to face indictments and prosecution for inciting murder, and possibly disqualification from future public office. Although Trumpism is likely to live on, it has been wounded, and the Republican party is likely to spend the next few months confronting an internal struggle between the Trump and anti-Trump wings. The latter was almost non-existent in 2020, but has re-emerged since 6 Jan 2021.  From the perspective of politics in 2021, the more significant outcome on 6 January was that the Democrats won both the run-off races for the US Senate from Georgia, Raphael Warnock becoming the first Black and Jon Ossoff the first Jewish person elected to the US Senate from Georgia (Warnock is also only the 10th Black ever elected to the Senate). This ensures that the Democrats will have 50 of the 100 Senate seats, plus Vice President-elect Kamala Harris having the casting vote. So, in effect, there was a mild Blue Wave in the 2020 election, and the Democrats will control the White House, Senate (by a casting vote) and the House (by a narrow majority, with 222 of the 435 seats, reduced to 219 seats after Biden nominated three House members to his Cabinet). President-elect Biden has already nominated a centrist Cabinet, and is likely to retain his focus on a centrist agenda, eschewing the ideas of the left-wing of his party. The narrowness of the  Democratic majority in Congress makes it impossible to pursue a more radical program.  Despite clear evidence of Trump's incitement to the crowd on 6 January, only 10 House Republicans voted to impeach him a second time. The US still remains polarized, and Biden's centrist Cabinet is likely to aim primarily at reconciliation. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

The Spectre of 1824 (Not Quite 1860), but Georgia & Impeachment Aid Centrist Biden