ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This week's voluminous offering includes insights published over the Festive period and is, as always, packed with an eclectic mix of insights, both equity bottom up and top down and thematic from across ASEAN. I include below a short summary of Insights published on Smartkarma. Please scroll down to the detail section for a fuller recount. Wishing you a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2018! In Singapore Primary Home Sales Inched up 4% in Nov 2017, Vivienne Zhou Jinmiao notes that Singapore private residential primary home sales continue its positive sales momentum. In The Philippines: Timely Passage of Tax Reforms a Step in the Right Direction, Manu Bhaskaran, Manu Bhaskaran comments on the passing by the bicameral committee in the Philippines of the first tranche of tax reforms, dubbed the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) act.In Asian Growth Indicators Remain Strong Despite Some Cooling, Manu Bhaskaran comments on recent economic figures from Asian economies and maintains that the numbers indicate that growth remains strong despite some slight moderation on one or two instances. In Will DBS See 50% Higher Profit in 4Q17?, banking guru Daniel Tabbush notes that while consensus is 50% higher quarterly profit for DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP), he believes that the figures are overly optimistic. In National Treasure: Sri Rejeki Isman or Sritex, Henry Soediarko zeros in on Sritex, one of Indonesia's leading fully integrated textile companies.In Steady Yield-Play at Deeply Discounted Valuation. What’s in Its Portfolio?, insight provider Anni Kum sees Far East Orchard Ltd (FEOR SP) as a potential value play. the company trades at a 50% discount to its NAV and is near its 52-week low.In Singapore: Strong Growth to Slowly Seep into Labour Market, Manu Bhaskaran suggests that with the buoyant cyclical growth observed in the Singapore economy, there are high hopes that the labor market, a lagging indicator, will soon see improvements to the lot of workers.In Thailand: Investment and Politics Hold the Key to 2018, insight provider Jason Tan notes that despite its political travails over the past decade, Thailand retains ground-up strength and remains an attractive destination for foreign investment. In Sector Briefing: Beer in Vietnam (Prospects) - Part 3, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. note that beer is expected to register a positive total volume performance over the forecast period, although at a slower pace than in 2016. In his insight, VMS (VMS SP): Going for Higher Margins, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA works his magic on Venture Corp Ltd (VMS SP). The company has a highly diversified portfolio of more than 5,000 IT products and solutions to benefit from the ever-changing business landscape by being exposed to several sectors.In [Result Update] VGC - New Investments Strengthen Business Prospect, out friends at Research at Rong Viet Securities remain optimistic their view on Viglacera Corp (VGC VN)'s business based on its new investments in the coming years and stable cash flow from industrial parks. In [Result Update] QNS - Earnings Recovery in 2018, Research at Rong Viet Securities look at Quang Ngai Sugar Joint Stock Company (QNS VN). Vietnam is one of the top soymilk consumer countries in the world but two-thirds of its consumption is homemade, which makes branded soymilk look attractiveIn More Details on the Deal After Management Call, Insight provider Lloyd Moffatt updates on Comfortdelgro Corp Ltd (CD SP) post a call with management regarding the recently announced deal with Uber.In Asean Economic Activty - Va-Va-Vroom, Dr. Jim Walker re-iterates his continued liking for ASEAN. The region’s positive demographic trends, growing domestic consumer markets and strong macroeconomic and corporate sector fundamentals are all positives that underpin the medium to the long-term growth outlook.In Reality Check XI: How Much of a Game Changer Is After You’s Starbucks Connection?, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a close look at After You Pcl (AU TB). Roughly a year after their IPO, After You traded at an all-time high of Bt15/sh or more than triple its IPO value.In TRAIN’s Arrival, Philippines economist Jun Trinidad assesses the impact of the recently approved TRAIN (Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion), much of which will be earmarked for infrastructure funding over the next five years. In WICE: Ultimate Logistics Provider Expands Revenue Horizons, our friends at Country Group initiate on WICE Logistics PCL (WICE TB)  with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt7.40, which is derived from the PER ratio for the Thailand Transportation sector, implying a 34.5x FY18E PER. The company's Hong Kong logistics acquisition will enable it to tap lucrative China third-party market. It is a direct beneficiary of the pick up in international trade and more especially Thailand's recovery.In Capital Vs Labour – Storm in A (Western) Teacup, Dr. Jim Walker notes that there is a great debate over employee compensation versus corporate profits and just whether or not workers globally are being short-changed, thus fuelling the populist political backlash we have seen in the UK, Europe, and the US in recent times. It turns out that those angry fingers are pointing in the wrong direction when it comes to labor’s failing wage growth. In Asian Monetary Policy: Exceptions Will Stand Out, Manu Bhaskaran suggests that central banks across Asia are on the cusp of a rate-hike cycle as they attempt to rein in loose monetary policy in tandem with the Federal Reserve to preserve stability in their respective currencies and the external accounts. In Mitra Adiperkasa: Delivering on Earnings Recovery, Johannes Salim, CFA zeros in of Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (MAPI IJ) post a conference call with the Head of Investor Relations. The company's profitable-brands focused strategy has paid off handsomely, evidenced by strong earnings/margins recovery. In 2017 Results Still Modest but We See Improving KPIs as Smaller Players Expand Outside Java., our friends at New Street Research revisit the tower sector in Indonesia. In Googling ASEAN E-Commerce, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA looks at a joint research between Google, the world's search titan with more than 99% market share of search in Thailand, and Temasek, the mighty sovereign wealth fund of Singapore, which highlight a few interesting points about e-commerce in the region. In Malaysian Telco Meetings: Recent Good Results May Be Passing. Competition Remains Fierce., New Street Research writes on the Malaysian operators: DIGI (DIGI MK), Maxis (MAXIS MK), Axiata (AXIATA MK), and Telekom Malaysia (T MK), following recent meetings. In SCMA - Trading Places - On the Ground in J-Town, Jakarta veteran Angus Mackintosh writes on Surya Citra Media Pt Tbk (SCMA IJ) after a meeting with the company in Jakarta. The company remains the best quality media plays in Indonesia. In his Insight, PTTGC (PTTGC TB): Continued Upside from Injected Assets and Project Max., Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA takes a close look at PTT Global Chemical Pcl (PTTGC TB) where growth should be supported by continued high utilization, recognizing revenue from acquired assets from PTT PCL (PTT TB) and growing spreads due to high seasonal demand for chemicals. in Linknet - Upwardly Mobile, Angus Mackintosh revisits Link Net Tbk Pt (LINK IJ) post a meeting with company management. The company remains a key proxy for low penetration for both high-speed broadband and especially pay-TV, which remain at very low levels relative to the rest of Asia.In YZJ (YZJ SP): Fourth Largest Booked Ship Orders Globally, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA works his magic on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP), which is currently fourth in the world by outstanding orders.  In Noble Group: Creditors In Control, Bondcritic comments on the Noble Group Ltd (NOBL SP), once an investment darling and one of Asia’s larger commodity trading houses and supply-chain managers, which is currently undergoing a major restructuring exercise that will determine the fate of all its vested interests.In South Series (Part 4): Kra Canal, A Chinese Suez Smacked Two Days North of Singapore?!, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA ,  in a collaborative piece between MCorp Review and Victor Wai, CFA, a Drewry ports specialist, who flew into Bangkok to discuss some issues regarding the Kra Canal, they attack from different angles ranging from politics, historical parallels, to economic viability. In IPO Stalker: Humanica, Software Dudes for HR Management, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA revisits Humanica PCL (HUMAN TB , a Thai software company founded by a PWC veteran.In Riled, Rated REIT Rebuffs Recent Report Regarding Rising Refinancing Risk, Alan Greene discusses the implications of the announcement by Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMRT SP) ) regarding a newspaper report on Moody's rating action.In DRB Hicom: The Knife Is Out, Insight provider Henry Soediarko notes that when Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (175 HK) bid for Proton, it was not just because they want new markets with growing population as well as the tax exemption for ASEAN markets but also an investment opportunity that involves turning around the loss-making Proton around through its expertise on production, manufacturing, operations, and marketing. In The Autobot Update (December V2): Toyota’s Last Stand, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA  discusses Toyota's declining fortunes in Thailand.In TOG: Thai Optical Lens Producer Eyes Niche Domination, Country Group initiates on Thai Optical Group Pcl (TOG TB). The company is the largest independent optical lens manufacturer in Thailand, with a current production capacity of more than 30 million pieces of lens per year.In his insight Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2017...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2018, Nicolas Van Broekhoven looks back at his five best ideas in 2017 and puts forward his top pick for 2018. In a series of two insights, Indonesian Taxation (Part I of II): New Department Head Promises Sorely Needed Reforms and Indonesia Tax (Part II/II): Amid Information Exchange, Global Residence‑Based Regime Jeopardizes FDI, Kevin O’Rourke discusses recently announced tax reforms in Indonesia and the implications.in DTAC Continues to Lose Ground to TRUE as Thai Telcos Head into 2018 and Another Spectrum Auction, our friends at New Street Research look at the most recent Thai results (3Q17) and discuss the outlook for 2018. In Investment Strategy Report - A First Look at 2018, Research at Rong Viet Securities lay out their investment themes for 2018. In Sustaining a Weak PHP Bias Implies Policy Rate Hike Delay, Jun Trinidad discusses the outlook for the PHP.In Five Milestones Thailand Hit in 2017, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA  highlights the five major milestones Thailand achieved in 2017. In Asia Commercial Bank – Too Much Credit, Thomas J. Monaco takes a skeptical look at this Vietnamese lender. Asia Commercial Bank/Vietnam (ACB VN) is a leading joint-stock bank in Vietnam, and its growth over the years has been impressive at a much higher rate than peers– focusing its attention on the retail and SME segments.In Telecom Review: DTAC Sheds More License?, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA  introduces a new product in 2018 called Telecom Review to update on the sector where we got started and covered for the longest time. The key focus for Thai operators in 2018 has certainly been licenses. In Inaugural Dividend Is a Harbinger of Things to Come, Lloyd Moffatt notes that Pryce Corp (PPC PM)  declared their first dividend since 1995, prior to the Asian Financial Crisis and subsequently entering rehabilitation. A milestone for the company.In The New Thai-Coons (Class of 2018), Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA  suggests that if we defined a "Thai-Coon" as a top ten billionaire of Thailand with control of at least one listed entity, then there's gotta be some changes around here. In Singapore - Not Looking So Bright, Sharmila Whelan is changing her tune on Singapore.  They liked Singaporean equities last year.  Not in 2018 though.in On a Wave of Optimism, Singapore Must Grapple with Longer-Term Challenges, Manu Bhaskaran suggests that Singapore has cause for optimism about economic prospects in 2018 on the back of tailwinds from a stellar 2017.In United Engineers – Potential Windfall from the Impending Divestment of The Seletar Mall?, Foo Sze Ming says time is almost ripe for SPH to divest The Seletar Mall to SPH REIT. SPH owns 70% interests in the SPV that owns The Seletar Mall and United Engineers holds the balance 30% interest.in SCB Mounts a White Knight Rescue for Pace, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA notes that after telling PACE not to sell Dean &amp; Deluca to CENTEL, SCB has mounted a surprisingly bold rescue mission for PACE. In Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional: Majority Report, our own Pranav Rao notes that following the announcement by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306 JP; "MUFG") recently of its three-part acquisition of Temasek's stake in Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ),  Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP; "SMFG")'s CEO has publicly stated the bank's interest in raising its 40% stake in Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Pt (BTPN IJ) to a majority.  In his Could Fuel Excise Hikes in 2018 Spoil Upbeat Consumption Prospects?, Jun Trinidad discusses that potential ramifications of recently announced fuel excise hikes in the Philippines.. In Takeaways from FCL’s Germany Logistics Portfolio Acquisition and Thoughts on S-REIT Implications, insight provider Will Tan, CAIA highlights that towards the end of 2017, there were a number of acquisitions signed in Europe. In Yoma Strategic – Final Shortlists for Yangon Central Railway Development, Foo Sze Ming highlights that the Union Government of Myanmar will select a winner for the tender of the Yangon Central Railway Comprehensive Development Project by next month and Yoma Strategic/FMI is likely the frontrunner for this project. In Islamic Investing 2018: Change of Plans, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA notes that unlike the first portfolio he picked in 2017, the small-cap picks he chose in Season 2 didn't do quite so well. In fact, with the exception of Dental Corp, most of the stocks he picked actually dropped. This reflected some of the difficulties with Shariah-compliant investing. Some of the stocks he considered, for example, Thai Union and BJC, did better than the ones he picked, but they would not have been Shariah-compliant, to begin with. In Indonesia: Widodo’s Popularity Hits New High, Kevin O’Rourke highlights President Joko Widodo’s lead over Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto widened further in a new poll by a premier survey firm, Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC).  In a head‑to‑head scenario, the incumbent garners support from 64 percent of respondents, versus 27 percent for the retired general.  Widodo’s re‑election looks increasingly safe; given Prabowo’s credentials regarding governance and democracy, this lowers the country‑risk profile.In his insight IPO Radar: Chic Republic, Homepro Wannabe, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA looks at Chic Republic PCL (CHIC TB) IPO. In his search for thematically favorable IPOs, he looked up Chic Republic, a relatively unknown furniture retailer with much smaller scale than Home Product Center Pcl (HMPRO TB) Homepro (A Tale of Two Retailers: Homepro Vs. Platinum). 

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMRT SP)

Quang Ngai Sugar Joint Stock Company (QNS VN)

The New Year's Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Taxes, Beer, and Optimism