Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Brazilian Real Set to Outperform Other EM Currencies in the Near Term

A Hump and a Kink in Brazil’s Yield Curve

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>With the Brazilian central bank approaching the end of its aggressive monetary tightening cycle, the rate curve has taken a unique shape that features a hump and a kink.</li>
<li>The hump should get more pronounced because the rate-cutting cycle should be deeper than currently priced because real rates are quite elevated and growth risks are high.</li>
<li>The kink should also get more prominent as the curve should steepen further out due to fiscal risks irrespective of who wins the upcoming presidential election.</li>
</ul>


With the Brazilian central bank approaching the end of its aggressive monetary tightening cycle, the rate curve has taken a unique shape that features a hump and a kink.
The hump should get more pronounced because the rate-cutting cycle should be deeper than currently priced because real rates are quite elevated and growth risks are high.
The kink should also get more prominent as the curve should steepen further out due to fiscal risks irrespective of who wins the upcoming presidential election.


The Hump and Kink in Brazil’s Yield Curve to Become More Pronounced

BRL

The Hump and Kink in Brazil’s Yield Curve to Become More Pronounced