Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

A chartered management accountant with more than 10 years of rich experience in investment research and financial analysis. Worked as an equity analyst for one of the world's largest asset managers with USD2.5trn in AUM covering numerous sectors including chemicals, retail, tech, autos, telco, real-estate and banks, globally. Experienced in fundamental equity research, industry research, commodity studies, forensic accounting, and due diligence reviews.

Equity Analyst

TME: Online Music Drives Earnings; No Recovery in Sight for Social Entertainment Yet

Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

Grab: Strong Earnings Beat Fails to Impress Market as Growth Rates Decelerating

Meituan: Pandemic Driven Top Line Growth Is Only Temporary

Tencent: Gradual Recovery in Earnings; Domestic Gaming to Resume Growth

Tencent: Next Candidate for an Alibaba Style Split?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tencent will report 1Q2023E earnings on 17th May. Online gaming revenues have declined YoY for 4-consecutive quarters while social networks revenue has been down for the last two quarters.</li>
<li>Our app data analysis suggests that grossing ranks of some of Tencent’s key domestic titles have dropped during 1Q2023 while international titles show an improvement during the quarter.</li>
<li>Our regression model suggests that Tencent’s internet value-added services biz’s revenues would grow at lower single digits in 1Q2023E and is still playing catch up with its own self.</li>
</ul>


Tencent will report 1Q2023E earnings on 17th May. Online gaming revenues have declined YoY for 4-consecutive quarters while social networks revenue has been down for the last two quarters.
Our app data analysis suggests that grossing ranks of some of Tencent’s key domestic titles have dropped during 1Q2023 while international titles show an improvement during the quarter.
Our regression model suggests that Tencent’s internet value-added services biz’s revenues would grow at lower single digits in 1Q2023E and is still playing catch up with its own self.


Tencent: Internet VAS Business Still Playing Catch Up