Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Indian Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.</li>
<li>Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.</li>
<li>Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.</li>
</ul>


Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.
Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.
Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.


Tariffs and Troughs: Alcoa’s Pain May Be the Entry Point