Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

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CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan's real GDP grew 3.1% in 2020 (faster than the PRC's 2.3%), and accelerated to 8.2% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, led by a capex surge. The latter should accelerate further as the global semiconductor shortage and surging demand for computers, parts and peripherals induce an investment boom in Taiwan. We recommend staying solidly Overweight Taiwan. Taiwan's real GDP accelerated to 8.2% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, after growing 3.1% in 2020 -- faster than the People's Republic of China's 2.3% -- including an acceleration to 4.7% YoY growth in 2H 2020. Over the latest 4 quarters, Taiwan has comfortably had the fastest-growing economy among the world's developed economies, with its real GDP expanding 4.5%, the rare economy without a solitary quarter of YoY contraction in 2020. The acceleration in 1Q 2021 was led by a surge in net external demand, bolstered by 8.3% YoY growth in gross investment. The global semiconductor cycle will continue to bolster net-external-demand-led growth through the rest of 2021, with 2Q 2021 likely to see close to 10% YoY growth. For the full year, Taiwan's real GDP will likely grow 7%.Exports expanded 27.3% YoY in March 2021 (and 24.5% YoY in 1Q 2021), led by soaring demand for semiconductors and computers (including parts like PCBs, for all of which Taiwan is a leading global manufacturer), and even stronger growth in smaller export categories like plastics and chemicals. Imports accelerated to 20.9% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, reflecting the strengthening of domestic demand, which broadened the economic recovery. The global electronics cycle will likely spur continued strength in Taiwan's economy through the rest of this year. The semiconductor shortage has played to Taiwan's core strength, and demand for computers &amp; parts (benefiting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a>) should also remain strong. The major global winner remains <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US)</a> , which has taken a huge lead at the top end of the semiconductor chain (with 84% global market share in 5nm ICs), and is ploughing much of its US$20 billion profits last year (from US$48 billion revenue) into re-investment to widen its lead over its competitors. While any such capex surge in cutting-edge technology is inherently risky/uncertain, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US)</a> 's market positioning raises the probability of success, implying greater pricing power as its lead over rivals expands further. That Taiwanese corporates have been careful to ensure that the high end of their manufacturing (cutting-edge technology, capital-goods output, research and design) stays in Taiwan (creating an annual bilateral trade surplus of over US$100 billion with the PRC). Although the PRC is the largest destination for Taiwan's exports, the processing in the PRC can be gradually moved elsewhere (Vietnam, Malaysia, India) if it becomes politically/militarily threatened. The capex-led growth of Taiwanese corporates should hugely bolster Taiwan's economy this year, and we recommend staying solidly Overweight Taiwan.

Taiwan's real GDP grew 3.1% in 2020 (faster than the PRC's 2.3%), and accelerated to 8.2% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, led by a capex surge. The latter should accelerate further as the global semiconductor shortage and surging demand for computers, parts and peripherals induce an investment boom in Taiwan. We recommend staying solidly Overweight Taiwan. Taiwan's real GDP accelerated to 8.2% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, after growing 3.1% in 2020 -- faster than the People's Republic of China's 2.3% -- including an acceleration to 4.7% YoY growth in 2H 2020. Over the latest 4 quarters, Taiwan has comfortably had the fastest-growing economy among the world's developed economies, with its real GDP expanding 4.5%, the rare economy without a solitary quarter of YoY contraction in 2020. The acceleration in 1Q 2021 was led by a surge in net external demand, bolstered by 8.3% YoY growth in gross investment. The global semiconductor cycle will continue to bolster net-external-demand-led growth through the rest of 2021, with 2Q 2021 likely to see close to 10% YoY growth. For the full year, Taiwan's real GDP will likely grow 7%.Exports expanded 27.3% YoY in March 2021 (and 24.5% YoY in 1Q 2021), led by soaring demand for semiconductors and computers (including parts like PCBs, for all of which Taiwan is a leading global manufacturer), and even stronger growth in smaller export categories like plastics and chemicals. Imports accelerated to 20.9% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, reflecting the strengthening of domestic demand, which broadened the economic recovery. The global electronics cycle will likely spur continued strength in Taiwan's economy through the rest of this year. The semiconductor shortage has played to Taiwan's core strength, and demand for computers &amp; parts (benefiting Acer Inc (2353 TT) and Asustek Computer (2357 TT)) should also remain strong. The major global winner remains Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US) , which has taken a huge lead at the top end of the semiconductor chain (with 84% global market share in 5nm ICs), and is ploughing much of its US$20 billion profits last year (from US$48 billion revenue) into re-investment to widen its lead over its competitors. While any such capex surge in cutting-edge technology is inherently risky/uncertain, Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US) 's market positioning raises the probability of success, implying greater pricing power as its lead over rivals expands further. That Taiwanese corporates have been careful to ensure that the high end of their manufacturing (cutting-edge technology, capital-goods output, research and design) stays in Taiwan (creating an annual bilateral trade surplus of over US$100 billion with the PRC). Although the PRC is the largest destination for Taiwan's exports, the processing in the PRC can be gradually moved elsewhere (Vietnam, Malaysia, India) if it becomes politically/militarily threatened. The capex-led growth of Taiwanese corporates should hugely bolster Taiwan's economy this year, and we recommend staying solidly Overweight Taiwan.   

Taiwan: The Rich World's Growth Star Continues to Shine