President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

Vision Research LLC (founded in 2011) is an independent equity research firm using fundamental analysis to help investors avoid risk & profit from structurally challenged equities. The research is focused on US & European equities. Primary sectors include consumer, TMT and industrials.  Team background includes 3 CFA Charter holders, 2 Certified Public Accountants, global L/S experience, TMT credit experience, management consulting, software engineer, and long biased international equities.

President

Impact of Austin Freeze. Will Apple Get Their 5G Phones?

TSMC Vs. Samsung.  Where's the Net Add Upside?

A Bull Investment Case for TSMC (Summary Version)

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>While current tailwinds exist for Taiwan Semiconductor, the world's largest foundry faces significant competitive threats from the #2 player, Samsung.  Samsung desires to capture the #1 market position by 2030.  Samsung has been undercutting the competition on price, investing heavily in capex to gain share in lower nm products and appears to be about 2 years ahead of TSMC on the latest technology GAA-FET.  TSMC will face difficult comparisons in 2H21, a major customer may be slowing purchases, margins may have peaked, and forward estimates and lofty multiples on top of  those estimates, may create downside opportunity in the medium and long term.</p>

While current tailwinds exist for Taiwan Semiconductor, the world's largest foundry faces significant competitive threats from the #2 player, Samsung.  Samsung desires to capture the #1 market position by 2030.  Samsung has been undercutting the competition on price, investing heavily in capex to gain share in lower nm products and appears to be about 2 years ahead of TSMC on the latest technology GAA-FET.  TSMC will face difficult comparisons in 2H21, a major customer may be slowing purchases, margins may have peaked, and forward estimates and lofty multiples on top of  those estimates, may create downside opportunity in the medium and long term.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT, TSM): Samsung Is Serious About Stealing Share