Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

SVI's CEO Tables A Conditional Tender Offer

SVI (SVI TB): Production Capacity Expansion Should Continue to Pay Off

Interesting Stocks to Consider in Thailand, Vol. 2

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>On the 12 September, Pongsak Lothongkam, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/svi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10119:1" rel="noopener">SVI Pcl (SVI TB)</a>'s CEO and largest shareholder with 45.71% of shares out, launched a <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=15682454704980&amp;language=en&amp;country=US" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Conditional Voluntary Tender Offer</a> (CVTO) at THB4.85/share which was a 23.7% premium to last close.</p>
<p>The CVTO is conditional on 19.29% (451.3mn shares) of shares out tendering, to get Lothongkam to at least 65%.  He has no intention of delisting SVI within 12 months after the (successful) completion of the Tender Offer period.</p>
<p>The consensus target price has declined to THB3.82, prior to the Offer, from THB4.88 at the beginning of the year. <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=15653015701750&amp;language=en&amp;country=US" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2Q19</a> net income was down 44.6% yoy. Yet SVI traded at the Offer Price as recently as late April.</p>
<p>The Tender Offer period closes on the 1 November. I previously considered the Offer to be opportunistic. In light of the recent tendering announcement and mindful of the volume traded since the initial announcement, this transaction looks like it will lapse at the close.</p>
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On the 12 September, Pongsak Lothongkam, SVI Pcl (SVI TB)'s CEO and largest shareholder with 45.71% of shares out, launched a Conditional Voluntary Tender Offer (CVTO) at THB4.85/share which was a 23.7% premium to last close.
The CVTO is conditional on 19.29% (451.3mn shares) of shares out tendering, to get Lothongkam to at least 65%.  He has no intention of delisting SVI within 12 months after the (successful) completion of the Tender Offer period.
The consensus target price has declined to THB3.82, prior to the Offer, from THB4.88 at the beginning of the year. 2Q19 net income was down 44.6% yoy. Yet SVI traded at the Offer Price as recently as late April.
The Tender Offer period closes on the 1 November. I previously considered the Offer to be opportunistic. In light of the recent tendering announcement and mindful of the volume traded since the initial announcement, this transaction looks like it will lapse at the close.





SVI Pcl

SVI's Offer Looks Set To Fail. And Fall.