Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Suzuki – Could Be the Only J-Auto to Miss at 1Q

Suzuki – Maruti Weakness Makes Our Predicted Miss Likely

Suzuki Motor – Weaker Results but Better than Consensus

Suzuki – 3Q FY21 Momentum Continues and Guidance Overshoot Likely

Suzuki – Osamu Suzuki Stepping Down Could Accelerate Move Into Toyota Group

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Suzuki reported its 4QFY21 results on Thursday which saw revenues increase YoY by 16% and operating profits of ¥56bn (+25% YoY) implying an OPM of 5.6%.The reported results were 6.8%% and 0.6% higher than consensus revenue and OP respectively, but a lack of guidance combined with deteriorating conditions in India and rising cost inflation are likely to keep the stock in check despite some nice signs in its peripheral businesses.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">In ¥bn</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">Revenue </td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">OP</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">OPM</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Actual Results - 4QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">1,003</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">56</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Consensus - 4QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">939</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">55</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">5.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">6.8%</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">0.6%</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Actual Results - FY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">3,178</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">194</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Guidance - FY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">3,000</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">160</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">5.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">5.9%</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">21.5%</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">0.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</div>

Suzuki reported its 4QFY21 results on Thursday which saw revenues increase YoY by 16% and operating profits of ¥56bn (+25% YoY) implying an OPM of 5.6%.The reported results were 6.8%% and 0.6% higher than consensus revenue and OP respectively, but a lack of guidance combined with deteriorating conditions in India and rising cost inflation are likely to keep the stock in check despite some nice signs in its peripheral businesses.

In ¥bn
Revenue 
OP
OPM


Actual Results - 4QFY21
1,003
56
5.6%


Consensus - 4QFY21
939
55
5.9%


Surprise
6.8%
0.6%
-0.3%


 
 
 
 


Actual Results - FY21
3,178
194
6.1%


Guidance - FY21
3,000
160
5.3%


Surprise
5.9%
21.5%
0.8%

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ

Suzuki Motor

Suzuki – Waiting on India