Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Suzuki – Osamu Suzuki Stepping Down Could Accelerate Move Into Toyota Group

Toyota – Isuzu Re-Tie-Up Drives Further Japanese Consolidation

Toyota – The EV and AD March Continues Beyond Zero

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Suzuki reported 4QFY21 results on Friday which saw revenues increase YoY by 4% and operating profits hit ¥64bn (+43% YoY) implying an OPM of 7.1%. The reported results were 6.8%% and 18.6% higher than consensus revenue and OP respectively.Despite better performance in 3QFY21, the company conservatively stuck with its previous guidance for FY21. Therefore, Suzuki is implying revenue of ¥824bn and OP of ¥21bn implying an OPM of just 2.6% in 4QFY21.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">In ¥bn</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">Revenue </td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">OP</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">OPM</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Actual Results - 3QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">905</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">64</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">5.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Consensus - 3QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">847</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">54</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">6.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">6.8%</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">18.6%</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">-1.2% points</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Guidance</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">3,000</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">160</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">5.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Consensus</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">2,980</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">173</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">5.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Difference</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">0.7%</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">-7.7%</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">-0.5% points</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Implied Guidance- 4QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">824</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">21</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Consensus - 4QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">906</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">56</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Difference</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">-9.0%</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">-62.1%</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">-3.6% points</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures</div>

Suzuki reported 4QFY21 results on Friday which saw revenues increase YoY by 4% and operating profits hit ¥64bn (+43% YoY) implying an OPM of 7.1%. The reported results were 6.8%% and 18.6% higher than consensus revenue and OP respectively.Despite better performance in 3QFY21, the company conservatively stuck with its previous guidance for FY21. Therefore, Suzuki is implying revenue of ¥824bn and OP of ¥21bn implying an OPM of just 2.6% in 4QFY21.

In ¥bn
Revenue 
OP
OPM


Actual Results - 3QFY21
905
64
5.2%


Consensus - 3QFY21
847
54
6.4%


Surprise
6.8%
18.6%
-1.2% points


 
 
 
 


Guidance
3,000
160
5.3%


Consensus
2,980
173
5.8%


Difference
0.7%
-7.7%
-0.5% points


 
 
 
 


Implied Guidance- 4QFY21
824
21
2.6%


Consensus - 4QFY21
906
56
6.2%


Difference
-9.0%
-62.1%
-3.6% points

Source: Company disclosures

Suzuki – 3Q FY21 Momentum Continues and Guidance Overshoot Likely

Suzuki Motor

Suzuki – 3Q FY21 Momentum Continues and Guidance Overshoot Likely