Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Technology sector in Asia mostly, and Global Tech in a couple of jobs. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA and Macquarie. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered Asian semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the global Semi supply chain. In addition to stock coverage, he also publishes research on sectors as that often shows clearer trends and pinpoints the inflection points in a sharper way. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 a bit better. 4Q guidance inline. The negative surprise is a 1Q25 double warning: revenue decline worse than normal seasonality and "manufacturing activity will not follow the usual profile”.</li>
<li>The Automotive outlook is very poor: decline in car production, decline in EV, inventories still high, increase in pricing pressure. Industrials still in inventory correction.  </li>
<li>Consensus will obviously revise lower for 1H25. The stock is trading at 12.5x 2025 estimates of yesterday, maybe 14-15x tomorrow's 2025 forecasts. Let's wait for that to happen. </li>
</ul>


3Q24 a bit better. 4Q guidance inline. The negative surprise is a 1Q25 double warning: revenue decline worse than normal seasonality and "manufacturing activity will not follow the usual profile”.
The Automotive outlook is very poor: decline in car production, decline in EV, inventories still high, increase in pricing pressure. Industrials still in inventory correction.  
Consensus will obviously revise lower for 1H25. The stock is trading at 12.5x 2025 estimates of yesterday, maybe 14-15x tomorrow's 2025 forecasts. Let's wait for that to happen. 


STMicro (STM): Can It Get Any Worse? Yes, It Will in 1Q25. Let's Wait for that Reset.

STMicroelectronics NV

STMicro (STM): Can It Get Any Worse? Yes, It Will in 1Q25. Let's Wait for that Reset.