Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Signals #94 – Trading the FAKE business cycle

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Easter and welcome to our flagship editorial! The tide is turning on USD liquidity and the four most recent bills auctions have seen net negative issuance, which is a harbinger for the trend into April, which is typically strongly net issuance negative due to tax seasonality (see chart 1).</li><li>Only during the first lockdown in 2020, did the net amount of outstanding bills increase through this period, which makes for a solid hit ratio in predicting (much) weaker USD liquidity in Q2 this year.</li><li>We wrote on New Years eve of 2023 that “USD liquidity is likely going to increase massively in Q1 due to a series of technicalities surrounding the BTFP, ON RRP and TGA facilities, which makes us set for a material rally (or a blow off top) in Q1.”, which I guess was as precise as it could be.</li></ul>

Happy Easter and welcome to our flagship editorial! The tide is turning on USD liquidity and the four most recent bills auctions have seen net negative issuance, which is a harbinger for the trend into April, which is typically strongly net issuance negative due to tax seasonality (see chart 1).Only during the first lockdown in 2020, did the net amount of outstanding bills increase through this period, which makes for a solid hit ratio in predicting (much) weaker USD liquidity in Q2 this year.We wrote on New Years eve of 2023 that “USD liquidity is likely going to increase massively in Q1 due to a series of technicalities surrounding the BTFP, ON RRP and TGA facilities, which makes us set for a material rally (or a blow off top) in Q1.”, which I guess was as precise as it could be.

Steno Signals #93 – Material Stealth QT Upcoming During a War Economy