Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Golden Investments (Australia) - a company jointly owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20826" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> ("GEAR") and Ascend Global Investment Fund - has made a <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181119/pdf/440dlhl6sf47hg.pdf" target="_blank">takeover bid</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15252" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15252:1">Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)</a> at A$0.95/share, a 14.5% premium to last close, in an A$201mn deal.
Stanmore is up nearly 20-fold since July 2015, after Stanmore <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150730/pdf/43041x9lwg7spg.pdf" target="_blank">acquired the Isaac Plains Coal Mine</a> for the total consideration of $1. Coal revenue from that mine was first generated in June 2016. 
Separately GEAR has entered into a <a href="http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/1.%20GEAR%20-%20Chapter%2010%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=534463" target="_blank">share sale agreement</a> with Greatgroup (Sprint) to acquire 50.1mn shares or 19.9% of Stanmore's shares outstanding.  Assuming the Offer is successful, GEAR will sell this stake to Golden Investments.
Stanmore recommends shareholders take no action. With a three-fold increase in EBITDA forecast in FY19 - as the Isaac Plains' mines ramp up output - and the fact the Offer price is at a 5% discount to where shares traded a month ago, I'd be surprised if the board supports the Offer. 
Trading at A$0.99. Recommend buying around here, or a tick or two below. There's a temporary floor to the price, one in which the Offeror may (or should) bump, or simply to play the back-end. The Offer price backs out an inexpensive FY20E EV/EBITDA of ~2x.

Golden Investments (Australia) - a company jointly owned by Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) ("GEAR") and Ascend Global Investment Fund - has made a takeover bid for Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) at A$0.95/share, a 14.5% premium to last close, in an A$201mn deal.
Stanmore is up nearly 20-fold since July 2015, after Stanmore acquired the Isaac Plains Coal Mine for the total consideration of $1. Coal revenue from that mine was first generated in June 2016. 
Separately GEAR has entered into a share sale agreement with Greatgroup (Sprint) to acquire 50.1mn shares or 19.9% of Stanmore's shares outstanding.  Assuming the Offer is successful, GEAR will sell this stake to Golden Investments.
Stanmore recommends shareholders take no action. With a three-fold increase in EBITDA forecast in FY19 - as the Isaac Plains' mines ramp up output - and the fact the Offer price is at a 5% discount to where shares traded a month ago, I'd be surprised if the board supports the Offer. 
Trading at A$0.99. Recommend buying around here, or a tick or two below. There's a temporary floor to the price, one in which the Offeror may (or should) bump, or simply to play the back-end. The Offer price backs out an inexpensive FY20E EV/EBITDA of ~2x.

Stanmore Should Hold Out For A Superior Offer